分析網路程序法應用於郵輪母港選擇之研究-以亞洲郵輪港為例

Abstract

近年來，郵輪產業蓬勃發展，郵輪市場的重心正逐步移至亞洲新興市場。為了吸引郵輪公司前來停靠，瞭解郵輪公司如何挑選母港之重要因素是港口經營者主要考量的關鍵。本研究建構亞洲郵輪母港評估模式，首先透過分析網路程序法以專家問卷的方式求得準則的重要性權重。接著，由於專家對於港口在某些準則下的評分具有不確定性，因此本研究使用了DS/AHP建立港口方案分類樹，可以有效的減少傳統AHP的比較次數。最後，利用Dempster-Shafer證據理論合併專家評分的證據，以此作為港口選擇的依據。本研究結果顯示了「港口位址」、「郵輪旅遊為國家發展首要目標」以及「對郵輪公司的獎勵政策」為最重要的因素，而亞洲郵輪母港的最佳選擇為新加坡濱海灣郵輪港。

In recent years, the cruise industry is increseaing rapidly. Asia is a fast-emerging market, and many cruise lines are very keen to eapand into this region. In order to attract the cruise lines, understanding the cruise company how to select the important factor in the homeport is the port operator’s cruicial key. In this study, we construct the Asia cruise homeport evaluation model. First, we analyze the importance weight of the criterion by Analytic Network Process method in the form of expert questionnaire. Then, because the experts have uncertainties about the ratings of certain ports under the criteria, we use DS / AHP to establish a port decision tree, which can effectively reduce the number of traditional AHP comparisons. Finally, using the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine the evidence of expert scoring as a basis for port selection. The result shows the “Port site”, “Cruise tourism is a priority of thecountry” and “Incentive policy to cruise companies” as the most important factors, and the best choise of the Asia cruise homeport is the Singapore Marina Bay cruise port.