航空客運營收管理之艙等控管與累積銷售資料之相關性研究-以C航台北-上海航線為例

Abstract

航空營收管理的研究多著重在需求預估及機位控管最佳化，比較少是以最終銷售狀況與預設機位控管間相關性驗證作為主題的研究。因此本次研究係以實際銷售數據做為檢視費率艙等配額分佈作為主軸，進行相關性分析。 研究步驟依序為，蒐集C航台北-上海航線的經濟艙高、中、低費率之累積銷售數據；經初步整理後使用邏輯特函數進行曲線擬和以取得影響銷售曲線的參數估計；最終，透過群集分析方法，獲得分群結果並進行探討。 本研究最終顯示出，除了過往在需求預測中常常探討的淡、旺季，週幾(Day of the Week)出發的航班亦是影響航班銷售的重要指標，班機銷售的週期小到以一週為單位。

The past studies of airlines revenue management (RM) mainly focused on the research issues related to demand forecasting and seat inventory control optimization. However, the impact of RM control decision on the final sales has rarely been examined. This study thus then makes use of the real sales of various fare classes to analyze the effect of seat inventory control decision and to explore the correlation between them. The research has been based on the following steps. First, the actual sales with respect to the high, medium and low fare classes of the economy cabin class on the Taipei-Shanghai route of C airlines have been collected. Second, the sales data for each flight along the time dimension is fitted into the curve represented by the logit function and the values of the parameters are determined. Finally, the cluster analysis is performed with respect to the fit parameters to categorize the sales data. Based on the results of the analyses, it is found that the sales data or the demand is not only affected by the issue of “Peak Season” or “Low Season.” In addition, “Day of the Week” should also be a key factor for making the seat inventory control decision.