探討影響台灣受雇員工薪資之因素

Abstract

本研究採用Blanchard and Katz (1999) 的薪資模型來探討主要影響台灣名目薪資的關鍵因素，同時也考量出口值的增加是否真能提升薪資。我們採用自我迴歸分配落後模型 (ARDL) 的邊界檢定法來確認變數之間長期的共整合關係，並且採用誤差修正模型 (ECM) 來檢視變數之間的短期關係。研究結果顯示，採取出口導向在短期之內確實可以有效地迅速帶動經濟活動，然而名目薪資卻無法充分反映物價上漲的狀態卻會導致社會福利損失。此外，由於台灣中小企業占整體企業類型高達97.69%，中小企業的出口更高達280萬美元，不僅遠遠高於平均值，並排名全球第一。因此本研究進一步分析中小企業及非中小企業相關的經濟活動發現，不論中小企業或是非中小企業整體的銷售額增加時，都會造成薪資的顯著提升，其中非中小企業薪資提升的幅度更是中小企業的兩倍以上。

This paper employs Blanchard and Katz’s wage model (1999) to explore what determinants affect the nominal wage in Taiwan and considers the spurious positive relationship between real total annual export value of foreign trade and nominal wage. We implement the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests procedure to cointegration in order to examine the existence of any long-run relationship and use the error correction model (ECM) to look at the short-run relationships. The results point out that an export-oriented country can help pump up its economic activities immediately, but the nominal wage will not sufficiently reflect this simultaneously. The nominal wage does not sufficiently move upward with this increase and a rising price index will cause social welfare losses in Taiwan in the long term. In addition, SMEs accounted for 97.69% of all enterprises in Taiwan and created NT$ 2.8 million export values, which rank 1st globally and is far higher than the average number in global. Hence, this paper analyze the related economic activities of SMEs and non-SMEs, and find that the sales amount increased, either SMEs or non-SMEs, the wage also significantly rise. Particularly, the wage rise of non-SMEs is twice the amount of wages of SMEs.