反傾銷政策對能源類股價之影響-以台灣太陽能產業為例

Abstract

太陽能為許多國家發展再生能源的重點之一，太陽能產品的進出口量近年來大幅提升，造成國與國之間的貿易鬥爭，課徵反傾銷稅是許多國家貿易進出上的重要手段。本研究目的探討美國以及歐盟對台反傾銷調查消息宣布，對台太陽能類股是否產生負向異常報酬。美國及歐盟反傾銷判決結果有利於台灣，是否將會帶來正向異常報酬；判決結果不利於台灣，是否將會帶來負向異常報酬（初次宣判、最終宣判）。另外，探討最有影響力之判決結果，對台太陽能上中下游的異常報酬是否有顯著差異，其中產業鏈的附加價值越大，平均異常報酬率越高。美國與歐盟對台採取反傾銷措施，台灣太陽能股價對兩國之反應，美國影響是否顯著大於歐盟。最後探討美國對中國大陸課徵反傾銷措施，是否對台灣太陽能類股會產生正向異常報酬。

本研究蒐集2014年至2017年間，美國、歐盟對台灣和中國大陸之太陽能反傾銷案，使用事件研究分析法探討異常報酬。變異數分析法和多重比較法分析太陽能上中下游之股價對於反傾銷事件是否有顯著差異，產業鏈的附加價值與異常報酬相關性。美國與歐盟對台課徵反傾銷判決結果，台灣太陽能股價對對歐美產生異常報酬的差異。探討其中是否符合效率市場假說，並且從中描述投資人的預期心理和從眾行為產生的影響。經過研究結果證實：

1.美國以及歐盟對台反傾銷調查消息宣布，台灣太陽能類股會產生負異常報酬。 2.反傾銷的判決結果有利將會帶來正向異常報酬；相反地，判決結果有不利則會帶來負向異常報酬。 3.反傾銷判決結果會使太陽能上、中、下游的平均異常報酬率產生顯著差異，中游平均異常報酬率為最高，亦即產業鏈的附加價值越大，平均異常報酬率越高。 4.美國及歐盟對台反傾銷判決結果產生異常報酬，美國影響顯著大於歐盟。 5.美國對中國採取反傾銷措施，台灣會有正向的異常報酬。

This study focuses on the effect of anti-dumping tax on the renewable companies. We observed the reaction of abnormal returns on the Taiwanese solar stocks from eight anti-dumping events. Five events were those US announced anti-dumping tax on Taiwan. Two events were those EU announced anti-dumping tax on Taiwan. Finally, one event for US announced anti-dumping tax on China. The purposes of this study are summarized into five points. Firstly, we study whether abnormal returns are negative if the announcement of anti-dumping tax investigation? Secondly, we test whether abnormal returns are positive if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is favorable? We test whether abnormal returns are negative if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is unfavorable? In addition, we test whether the abnormal returns will be significantly different if solar chain values are different? Also we test whether the abnormal returns will be significantly different because of different nations? Finally, we test whether Taiwanese solar stocks abnormal returns are positive if American’s announcement of anti-dumping tax on China? The study finds the results:

1.The abnormal returns are negative if the announcement of anti-dumping tax investigation. 2.The abnormal returns are positive if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is favorable. On the other hand, the abnormal returns are negative if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is unfavorable. 3.The abnormal returns will be significantly different if solar chain values are different. 4.The abnormal returns will be significantly different because of different nations. 5.Taiwanese solar stocks abnormal returns are positive if American’s announcement of anti-dumping tax on China.