保留盈餘對總資產比率與經營績效之關聯

Abstract

企業的永續經營在近年來特別受到重視，自從2001年安隆風暴的爆發後，讓全球對於百年企業的永續經營遭受到質疑，並且在2007年末金融海嘯的爆發，又在一次得讓世界見證了百年企業可能隨時會有倒閉的風險，因此本篇論文從Altman 的Z-SCORE開始研究如何觀測一間企業的倒閉風險，以及如何能夠避免企業經營不善的問題。

從Altman的危機預警模型當中，可以得知指標重視的層面包含，盈餘能力、償債能力、獲利能力等幾個重要的層面，但是其中永續經營為企業主的本分，而經營績效更是為一個不可忽略的指標，相對於經營績效，若企業欲永續經營，必須讓企業不斷維持成長動能，因此，經營績效與成長動能為本篇論文想了解的地方，到底是甚麼因素與經營績效還有成長動能緊密相連。

本篇論文經過參閱許多先前學者的研究，並將其研究歸納出企業與經營績效還有成長動能密切的五大指標，分別為成長動能、股利政策、獲利能力、資產運用效率與財務結構，其中的成長性指標中納入了Z-SCORE的保留盈餘對總資產的變數，因為這個變數在危機預警模型當中佔有相當重要的地位，而這個變數除了可以顯示出一間企業發放股利的能力，也可以看出一間企業的累積獲利，此指標也表示可動用的內部資產比率多寡，可以視為是一種成長性指標，也就是當企業遇到緊急狀況或者是遇到成長性投資機會時可以利用的資本，研究顯示該指標確實與經營績效以及成長動能有著正向且顯著的關聯，但保留盈餘佔總資產比率過多是否會造成營業上的負擔，企業該如何去管理盈餘留存比率，攸關企業的發展。

Nowadays, people gradually take respect on the corporate sustainable operation since the event of Eron in 2001. It’s unbelieve that a huge company such could corrupt in overnight. People start to doubt for the corporate sustainable operation even the company which was survive more than hundred years. After 2007, the finance crisis was broke out, again show that the company like Lehman Brothers bankrupted in a flash. So the research start from Altman’s Z-SCORE model which is used for estimating the bankrupt risk of company and we want to know that exactly important factors with performance of company and growth power.

In Altman’s Z-SCORE model, it shows some factors such as side of retained earnings, side of profit, and side of liquidity. To manage a company in efficient way is a responsibility for CEO. So the performance of company and growth power are important issues to control. Owing to the problem of bankrupt events frequently pop up today, this research will focus on the important factor between performance and growth power.

After review the precedent essays and research on this issue, we conclude that four sides of factors about performance and growth momentum, there are growth power, dividend payment policy, profit ability, asset operating effectivity and liability structure. In the growth power we include the same factor in Altman’s Z-SCORE is retained earnings to total assets. This ratio not only can reveal the ability of dividend payment, but also can be deemed as a potential growth ability. The retained earnings to total assets is the ratio of internal capital can be used in some urging time and the opportunity of investment which have positive NPV. In the end of research find out there have positive relationship between performance and retained earnings to total assets and also have the same result in growth momentum.