標題: A Modified Lotka-Volterra Model for Diffusion and Substitution of Multigeneration DRAM Processing Technologies
作者: Hung, Hui-Chih
Chiu, Yu-Chih
Wu, Muh-Cherng
工業工程與管理學系
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management
公開日期: 1-一月-2017
摘要: We attempt to develop an effective forecasting model for the diffusion and substitution of multigeneration Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) processing technologies. We consider market share data and propose a modified Lotka-Volterramodel, in which an additional constraint on the summation of market share is introduced. The mean absolute error is used to measure the accuracy of our market share predictions. Market share data in DRAM industries from quarter one (Q1) of 2005 to 2013 Q4 is collected to validate the prediction accuracy. Our model significantly outperforms other benchmark forecasting models of both revenue and market share data, including the Bass and Lotka-Volterra models. Compared to prior studies on forecasting the diffusion and substitution of multigeneration technologies, our model has two new perspectives: (1) allowing undetermined number of multigeneration technologies and inconsecutive adoption of new technologies and (2) requiring less data for forecasting newborn technologies.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/3038203
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/145540
ISSN: 1024-123X
DOI: 10.1155/2017/3038203
期刊: MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING
起始頁: 0
結束頁: 0
顯示於類別:期刊論文


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