專案融資運用於武器研製之研究－系統動態觀點

Abstract

國防主要武器裝備（Major Defense Equipment, MDE）自製包含自主研發、生產與構成武器產業鏈等三方面，藉由發展國防亦可同步提升國家的產業競爭力。MDE自製以軍用目的為導向，具複雜度高、整合度強、資本投資大、技術門檻高與回收期長等特性，除了政府整體規劃與政策的推動外，也需要民間廠商參與，然而民間廠商普遍存在財力條件不足之情況，常需藉由專案融資（Project Financing）取得所需資金。專案融資需具備高度專業及評估能力，而國內銀行長期缺乏專案建造、營運技術等評估能力與經驗，將影響融資風險控管，專案融資亦可能遭到廠商挪用，最後將會影響軍購的履約。因此，專案融資在MDE自製中扮演重要角色，強化MDE自製專案融資的治理工作及系統管理是重要議題。MDE自製與專案融資需考量因素很多，各種因素彼此相互影響、互為因果、環環相扣，利害關係人包含政府、民間廠商與銀行之間互動關係動態複雜，必須以整體與結構性的系統觀點來思考，較能瞭解問題的全貌，進而提出適切的政策。然少有文獻以系統觀點探討MDE自製與專案融資的研究，因此本研究採用系統動態學方法論，以系統思考建構臺灣MDE自製與專案融資質性系統動態分析模式，從政府、民間廠商與銀行三個利害關係人的角度，闡述MDE自製與專案融資因素之因果互動關係，提出改善系統結構之建議，提供決策者政策制訂之參考。

Self-production of major defense equipment (MDE) involves three dimensions, namely, self-research and development, production, and forming an arms industry chain. Through developments in national defense, the competitiveness of national industries can be enhanced simultaneously. MDE self-production is generally oriented toward military use, features high complexity, integration, investment capital, and technological requirements, as well as long payback periods. To meet national defense needs and enhance industrial competitiveness, in addition to overall planning and policy promotion by the government, the technological skills and financial conditions of private sector manufacturers must be considered. Likewise, to meet defense needs and enhance industrial competitiveness, project financing from banks, the establishment of a supervision framework and testing mechanism, and improvements to governance mechanisms concerning military acquisition and defense procurement as well as management of complex systems are necessary. Regarding MDE self-production and project financing, numerous factors must be considered. Moreover, these factors show interaction or causal effects, so they cannot be considered independently. Additionally, stakeholders include the government, private sector manufacturers, and banks, whose interaction relationships are generally complex. Therefore, comprehensive and structurally systematic perspectives must be adopted when engaging in MDE self-production and project financing issues. However, because few studies have systematically examined these issues, this study adopts system dynamics to construct a system dynamics model for analyzing MDE self-production and project financing in Taiwan through systems thinking. From the perspective of three stakeholders, namely, the government, private sector manufacturers, and banks, the causal and interaction relationships between factors of MDE production and project financing are described, and key methods for improving the system structure are proposed to serve as a reference for policy decision-makers.