邊緣人的力量:以代理人基模型檢視謠言傳播

Abstract

社交媒體中謠言經常來自追隨者數量不高的帳號，但傳播效果卻能比由意見領袖散播的真實訊息更為優秀。此一違反直覺的現象反映出謠言傳播的複雜性，我們將其稱為邊緣人的力量。本研究以代理人基模型(Agent-base modeling)來分析邊緣人與意見領袖傳播謠言的效果差異。結果顯示，儘管意見領袖的總影響人數較多，但卻存在明顯的上限。而邊緣人能通過較少的連結數影響更多的使用者，且此一特徵會隨著時間緩慢成長，顯示出較穩定的影響動態。其次，相較於邊緣人，意見領袖散布的謠言會加速群體意見的分裂速度，增加網絡中的迴聲室數量;這些結果暗示了我們不應過份高估意見領袖傳播訊息的能力，同時應當重視社交媒體任何造謠的使用者;從方法面而論，本研究引入了複雜系統的概念與研究方法，提供未來從事謠言傳播研究的相關建議。

Social media rumors often originate from accounts with a low number of followers, yet these rumors can surpass the spread of genuine information disseminated by opinion leaders. This counterintuitive phenomenon is indicative of the complexity of rumor propagation, which we refer to as the power of marginality. In this study, an agent-based modeling approach was employed to examine the disparity in the impact of rumor propagation between marginality and opinion leaders. The findings reveal that while the overall influence of opinion leaders is substantial, it has a discernible upper limit. Marginality, on the other hand, can exert greater influence on a larger number of users with fewer connections, and this attribute grows gradually over time, illustrating a more stable influence dynamic. Additionally, the dissemination of rumors by opinion leaders accelerates the fragmentation of group opinions and increases the number of echo chambers within the network compared to marginality. These results underscore the need to avoid overestimating the capacity of opinion leaders to disseminate information and to pay attention to any social media users engaging in rumormongering. Methodologically, this study employs research techniques that can analyze complex systems and provide recommendations for future research on rumor propagation.