Forecasting Trans-Pacific air traffic by grey model

Abstract

The rapid economic growth of Asia-Pacific countries continues to result in faster travel growth in the Trans-Pacific air passenger market. Grey theory is used to develop time series GM(1,1) models for forecasting: total passenger and 10 country-pair passenger traffic flows. The GM(1,1) models are shown to yield better accurate prediction results than ARIMA and multiple regression models. The results indicate that the total number of air passengers for Trans-Pacific market will increase at an average annual growth rate of approximately 11% up to year 2000.