標題: ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING FOR TAIWAN'S ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY
作者: Pan, Ching-Ti
Hu, Jin-Li
Tso, Chunto
經營管理研究所
Institute of Business and Management
關鍵字: electronic parts and components manufacturing industry;forecasting, seasonal ARIMA model (SARIMA);exports;exchange rates
公開日期: 2012
摘要: This paper develops 3 different SARIMA models to forecast energy demand in Taiwan's electronic parts and components manufacturing industry. The empirical findings show that the relative growth rate of energy demand in Q2 is higher than that in Q1, but the relative growth rate of energy demand in Q4 is lower than that in Q1. In addition, the relative growth rate of energy demand increasing is accompanied by the relative growth rate of Taiwan's total exports rising. On the contrary, the relative growth rate of the USD exchange rate to the new Taiwan dollar has a slight counter effect on the relative growth rate of energy demand. The results forecast that the total annual energy demand in Taiwan's electronic parts and components manufacturing industry will increase from 1,390 to 20,582 KKLOE during the period of 2010-2020.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11536/21321
ISSN: 1993-6788
期刊: ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS
Issue: 138
起始頁: 440
結束頁: 447
顯示於類別:期刊論文