ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING FOR TAIWAN'S ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY

Abstract

This paper develops 3 different SARIMA models to forecast energy demand in Taiwan's electronic parts and components manufacturing industry. The empirical findings show that the relative growth rate of energy demand in Q2 is higher than that in Q1, but the relative growth rate of energy demand in Q4 is lower than that in Q1. In addition, the relative growth rate of energy demand increasing is accompanied by the relative growth rate of Taiwan's total exports rising. On the contrary, the relative growth rate of the USD exchange rate to the new Taiwan dollar has a slight counter effect on the relative growth rate of energy demand. The results forecast that the total annual energy demand in Taiwan's electronic parts and components manufacturing industry will increase from 1,390 to 20,582 KKLOE during the period of 2010-2020.