ROBUST CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT PLANNING

Abstract

A multistage decision process for transportation investment planning is described. Most transportation investment problems inherently involve multiple criteria and uncertainty. To deal with the variations arising from changes in external environments, robust contingency plans should be integrated in the planning process-not after plans are developed-to account for uncertainty. With the proposed decision process, a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method is first used to select a set of good potential designs (or potential solutions). Corresponding optimal contingency plans for each design under uncertainty are then prepared. Robustness considerations are used in making the final selection among contingency plans. To demonstrate the proposed decision making process, a scenario approach is applied to develop a multistage decision making process for transportation investment planning problems. Finally, an example of regional transportation investment is presented to illustrate the method.