未來2020光碟技術發展趨勢之研究

Abstract

光碟的儲存技術雖已經成熟，但仍存在極大發展潛力，現在的光碟產品已經逐漸達到技術的物理極限，光碟產業無不積極尋求新的光碟技術以符合未來資訊生活之需求。 預計到2010年以後，電腦周邊存儲容量至少需要1TB(1000GB)，因此未來必須採用新原理、新技術及新材料，才有可能研究開發出新一代高容量資訊存儲技術和系統。 本論文將從生活層面了解未來光碟儲存媒體容量的需求，探討未來可能之新技術，並預測未來到2020年期間光碟技術發展變化，並且對產業未來技術發展趨勢作預估。 本研究主要使用專利分析與技術生命週期之觀點對光碟技術做預測，輔以文獻成長曲線及專家問卷來驗證前面預測的可靠性。 預期將完成以下預測目標；一.預測未來光碟儲存容量需求及新光碟技術， 二.預測未來光碟儲存技術發展及方向，三.對未來光碟儲存產業變化作預期分析與建言。

Although the storage technology of optical disc is mature nowadays, there is still potential space for developing. Actually, current technology of optical disc is close to physics limitaion. So optical disc industry is seeking new technology to satisfy future need. According to some reports, the storage demand of computer surrounding will reach at least 1TB capacity after 2010. The new generation of optical disc will adopt latest principle, technique and material to develop higher capacity. This thesis will study the capacity need of optical disc according to human activity and the candidates for future technologies by the demand. Besides, the development tendency of optical disc will be studied and forecasted extensively. This thesis will apply“Patent Analysis”and“Life Cycle Theory”to forecast future technology of optical disc and compare with the former result by technical literature and experts’s opinion. There will be three aspects as the following. 1. The trend of optical storage need and new technologies of optical disc. 2. Forecast the tendency and direction of future new technology for optical disc industry. 3. The analysis and suggestion for future developing of optical disc industry.