标题: | 运输建设计画之整合性评估-坪林交流道之个案研究 An Integrated Evaluation of Transportation Infrastructure- A Case Study of Pinglin Interchange |
作者: | 王淑美 Shu-Mei Wang 冯正民 Cheng-Min Feng 运输与物流管理学系 |
关键字: | 假设市场评估法;愿付价格;双价法;Contingent valuation method;Willingness-to-pay;Double bounded dichotomous choice |
公开日期: | 2006 |
摘要: | 在目前的交通运输评估的方式当中,多数的政府都是以环境影响评估搭配成本效益分析的结果作为主要的决策参考依据。交通建设对环境的影响不能与其他的影响效果不能放在同一天平上作评量,系肇因于过去缺乏将环境财货货币化的方法。近年来,环境财货估价的方法日趋成熟,故本文拟建立一个整合环境财货价值的成本效益分析架构,改善过去成本效益分析无法纳入环境影响效果的缺失。 在众多环境财估价方式当中,假设市场评估法是唯一可以同时估计市场财货及非市场财货的方法,尤其适合运用于涉及多种环境影响的交通运输计画。然因假设市场评估法的操作方式多元,且需逐一矫正工具偏误,因此本文将以实例验证,逐步地执行操作方式,探讨各个步骤当中应该注意的课题。并将假设市场评估法所推估出的环境财货货币价格纳入成本效益分析架构中,重新检视环境财货货币化对既有成本效益结果的影响。 本文系以坪林交流道作为案例分析,根据政府所做的成本效益评估显示,若是开放坪林交流道不作任河流量限制实,则每年可以创造社会总体效益为5.5亿元台币;但经本文估算环境成本,并且纳入原来的成本效益分析,结果发现与政府所做的分析呈现完全相反的结论。根据本文的估计,开放坪林交流道每年会对社会总体造成新台币19亿元的负担。 这个实证结果显示,现行使用环境影响评估搭配成本效益分析的决策分析方式,无法有效达成社会效益极大化的政策协助效果,更可能发生完全相反的决策建议。规划者实有必要发展一套整合假设市场评估法与成本效益评估的政策架构,弥补现行分析技术的缺失。 政府在从事公共建设之际,其主要的目的是要创造社会总体效益的极大化,然在社会效益增益当中所造成的分配不公平,也是政府必须同时解决的问题。然而在过去经验中显示,政府的确忽略了这个部份。这正是为何常常发生政府立意良好的建设,却造到所谓“受害”民众拦街抗议的景况。 本文更进一步将成本效益分析法从社会总体结果论之视野,移转到利益团体的效益分配的角度。本文将交通建设计画可能的影响及其各自关联的团体建立对应关系,并以利益团体为主体来进行成本效益的收纳。透过这个对应与归纳的架构,可以清晰勾勒出在特定的交通建设计画中,成本与效益可能由不同的团体来负担。由于有着货币价格的依据,政府可以利用经济手段进行社会利益重新分配,从而避免社会效益建筑在牺牲少数人利益的困境。 根据本文实证分析的结果,若对于使用坪林交流道的使用者课以使用费,则可以减少25%的使用人次,降低坪林地区的环境负荷。文中更进一步分析付费使用者的社经特性及其动机。结果显示比较在乎交通建设会影响环境进而损害自身健康者(如女性及高收入者),愿付价格较高;而对政府执法无信心者(如私部门工作者、60岁以上的长者及教育程度较高者)付费意愿较低。这些资讯显示,政府若以收费或课税等方式进行重分配之手段时,必须让施政对象了解政策对其直接的关连性及增加民众对政府的施政信心。 最后本文几项对后续研究者的建议,1.可以同时采取多种询价方式,由此勾稽彼此的结果,可以提升估价的可信度;2.可以进行事前、事后的比较,藉以降低估价的偏误;3.在问卷中要明定支付的载具,避免受访者的误解;4.建立叙述性偏好及实际性偏好资料间的关连性,可以提升叙述性偏好的可性度;5.在污染量的估计方面,增加运具的变相,可以提升估计的信度。 The purpose of the study is to develop and experiment with an integrated cost-benefit model for an environment-sensitive transportation project. It is well known that the current methodologies of assessing environment-sensitive projects have limitations. In this regard, the widely-adopted exercise which involves the “Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and the traditional Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) in a sequential way may be flawed with a failure to calculate the resultant economic and environmental impacts in a same setting and at the same time. Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) could take environmental factors into account and by far is the most frequently applied methodology. However, the CVM mainly deals only with the environmental impacts, paying not much attention to the economic impacts and still falling short of expectations. Given the above weakness it is necessary to develop a process which integrates the CBA with CVM to evaluate the overall effects. Consequentially, this study sets to go a step further than the previous research by developing a step-by-step process which integrates the CBA with the CVM to assess the overall effects (both the environmental and economic impacts) for a transportation project. In studying this issue, the Pinglin Interchange appears to provide an interesting case. Although within this issue, such a high-profile case as Taiwan high speed railway, the biggest BOT case, is large in scale and draws much attention, this is obviously not the case in the Pinglin Interchange. However, the Pinglin Interchange does provide a manageable case to experiment with the development of an integrated CBA with environmental factors for an environment-sensitive project. Indeed, the paper goes a step further than the previous research by exploring the issue at the practice level, which may hopefully be more insightful. The empirical results show that an integrated CBA may produce an entirely different conclusion from the one resulting from the common evaluation exercise of combining the EIA and the traditional CBA. Specifically speaking, while the common evaluation exercise led to a favorable conclusion, in the case of the Pinglin Interchange, the net annual benefit was estimated at NT$550 million per year when the environmental effects are excluded. On the other hand, the results of our integrated CBA suggest that the construction of the Pinglin Interchange may not be cost-effective, in terms of the joint effects of the environmental and economic impacts. If the environmental effects are monetised and taken into consideration, the net deregulated effect will become negative NT$1,954 million per year. By implication, an environmentally acceptable transportation project, such as the Pinglin Interchange, though is justifiable in terms of the EIA, may not necessarily be a social optimal project. Therefore, to make the socially optimal decision for an environment-sensitive project has been troublesome for the planners because they have to take into account both the resultant environmental impacts and economic impacts. Instead of developing something new, the study arguably has managed to find a short-cut to the above mentioned problem by integrating the CVM and traditional CBA on a same scale. This study further examines the role of the use fee in controlling pollution. It is well known that levy user fees in environment sensitive area will normally lead to a reduction in the number of tourists, thereby reducing environmental pollution. In this regard, the study applies the DB-DC approach to evaluate the effect of collecting user fee on the number of tourists in Pinglin. The results show that the government could set user fee at NT$62 and could reduce 24% of the tourists and the level of pollution will be reduced accordingly. In addition, the logic model is also used to examine the effects of socioeconomic characteristics on tourists’ WTP. The estimated results demonstrate that female, high income, metropolitan residents, low level of education, public employee and people under the age of 60 tend to have higher WTP. Moreover in-depth interview indicates that regardless of the socioeconomic characteristics, public’s confidence in the capability of government enforcement affects people’s WTP distinctly. In summary, this study addresses the need to develop an integral plan for WTP approach in project appraisal. The results of this research can be transferred to other areas of policy-making definitely, such as recreation industry and transportation constructions which are trying to avoid environmental damages. On this regard, identifying interested parties motivations is a very key factor of enforcing public polices. It is necessary for the government authorities to recognize related parties’ concerns and create fine communicative atmosphere. As a result, it could facilitate the process of pursuing sustainable development. Finally, this thesis has shown that it is imperative to encompass a wide range of environmental factors in the project appraisal process. There are a number of issues arising from this work that require further exploration which includes: (1) extending elicitation techniques in CV approach; (2) controlling the survey period to mitigate bias; (3) identifying the tools of environment protection; (4) combining stated preference and revealed preference data; (5) pricing automotives as an alternative to alleviate pollution. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009036804 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/39213 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |
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