公司治理與財務預警之關聯性

Abstract

過去的學者利用財務報表資訊預測公司財務危機的研究不勝枚舉，但是財務報表的資訊可透過會計方法變動達到窗飾效果，所以單靠公開之財務報表來判定公司經營的好壞已非完美的法則。故本研究以財務比率為基礎納入內部公司治理變數以及外部公司治理變數，分別以Logit model、Probit model及離散型倖存模型進行實證研究。 研究結果發現，第一：在差異性分析檢定下，外部公司治理變數具顯著區別危機公司與正常公司之能力。第二：外部公司治理變數與內部公司治理變數具互補效果，且此效果在小規模樣本公司下尤為顯著。第三：加入外部公司治理變數可有效提高模型之預測能力且在離散型倖存模型之最適分界點下有最低之分類誤差率。

An adequate financial distress prediction model not only helps banks decide their lending rate but gives corporations the signs of bankruptcy. Scholars in the past tend to forecast financial distress by financial ratios. However , the financial ratios may be manipulated by the managers and mislead the investors. For this reason , this study takes into account the financial ratios , internal corporate governance , and external corporate governance to proceed empirical examination by using Logit model , Probit model , and discrete-time survival model. The result indicates that external corporate governance has the ability to discriminate financial distress corporations form healthy ones. In addition , there is a complementary effect between external corporate governance and internal corporate governance , especially for small firms. Moreover, adding the external corporate governance to the model can enhance the predicting power and get the lowest sum of error rate , particularly for discrete-time survival model .