改良有界信心模型探討大眾媒體與小眾媒體對於意見動態的影響

Abstract

媒體型態一直在改變，從早期大眾媒體當道，到現在變成各級媒體，包含大眾媒體與小眾媒體，同時影響社會大眾的意見分布與形成，大眾媒體為大家所熟知，所謂的小眾媒體，是指針對特定的目標族群傳遞資訊，閱聽眾人數較少的媒體。大眾媒體與小眾媒體除了閱聽眾的差異外，他們使用不同的傳播策略，像是對一議題的極端程度或是傳遞資訊的頻率，而對民眾造成不同的影響。本論文所探討的便是在各級媒體不同傳播策略的多方作用之下，對於社會意見形成與分布所造成的影響。 本研究採用「意見動態」中的「有界信心模型」模擬人際意見交流；擴充「無尺度網路」為模型的底層網路使其更符合真實社會情形；依據傳播學對於大眾媒體與小眾媒體的定義來設定模型中的個體以及其傳播模式。 根據結果顯示，小眾媒體的極端意見會促成社會意見分裂並且使社會意見極化程度更加嚴重，而大眾媒體扮演著維持社會和諧的重要角色；至於特別議題，例如同性戀議題，大眾媒體更扮演著「教育者」的角色，教導社會大眾正確的觀念；小眾媒體精確掌握目標族群並且傳遞訊息更有效率地影響社會大眾的意見。

The ecology of media keeps changing. In early ages, “Mass media” are the only media. Nowadays, “Mass media” and “Alternative media” affect opinion formation of the society. “Mass media” are well known, and “Alternative media” are the media which influence only the specific target audiences. In addition to the target audiences, the communicating strategies they use, including the degree of polarization or the frequency of the broadcast ratio, are the differences between two media. Different strategies lead to different effect on the audiences. What we concern is the influence of all rank of media on the social opinion formation. We use “Bounded Confidence Model” to simulation the communication between agents, and we use the “Extended Scale Free Network” to be our social network. Based on the definition in communication, we add “Mass media” and “Alternative media” in our model. According to the results of our experiences, we find that exaggerated reports from alternative media contribute to the fragmentation and the polarization of the society, and mass media play an important role in maintaining the concordance. In some special issues, such as “gay issue”, mass media is the “educator” teaching the society correct concept. The “Alternative media” broadcasting information to specific audiences impact the society more efficiently.