以六個標準差，評析危險品運輸的環境及社會風險

Abstract

由於其動態的特性，危險品運輸的風險比生產工廠的風險要來得高，而因為運輸的意外事件所造成的後果，及其對環境以及人的影響，尤其是對人口較為密集地區的影響，是難以估計的。因此，很多國家要求應用量化風險評估的方法及管理系統確保危險品運輸的安全。危險品運輸的風險管理是一個非常複雜的流程，它包含了危害鑑別、風險評估及控制、監控、控制機制的維持、意外事件的呈報及緊急應變等。

有效率的危險品運輸風險評估，涉及非常廣泛的資訊，如危險品本身的危害、氣象條件、交通狀況、車輛安全規範、危險品的包裝、運輸路線、運輸路線人口密度等等。本論文嘗試以液氯槽車運輸為例，並應用相關分析方法進行事故情境假定、背景資訊管理、量化社會風險評估、以及六個標準差統計方法之應用。依據風險評估流程及結果的品質，六個標準差的方法確實扮演了一個成功的重要元素之一。相信本論文所揭露的方法，應做為其他相關危險品運輸的環境風險評估之參考。

Because of its dynamic nature, transport of dangerous goods poses greater risk than fixed-location manufacturing facilities. The consequences of incidents and their impact on the environment and the general public, especially in highly populated areas, are very difficult to estimate. Therefore, it is mandatory to apply quantitative risk assessment and management systems to ensure the safety of dangerous goods transport in many countries. Transport risk management is a very complex process, consisting of various tasks for hazard identification, risk assessment and control, monitoring and maintaining of the control mechanism, incident reporting and emergency response.

An effective risk assessment of the transport of dangerous goods involves a wide range of information, such as inherent hazards of the materials, meteorological conditions, traffic characteristics, vehicle safety specifications, packaging of the goods, route selection, and population distribution along the route, etc. This thesis uses chlorine transport as an example and to outline the methodologies applied in scenario development, background information management, quantitative societal risk assessment, and the application of Six Sigma principles. Based on the results of both the assessment processes and the final results, it is clear that Six Sigma provides a key factor to the success of this study. It is believed that the methodologies outlined in this thesis can be extended to environmental risk assessment and other operations of the transport of dangerous goods.