腸病毒重症傳播動態模擬暨傳染阻絕政策成效評估

Abstract

1998年台灣爆發腸病毒疫情以來，每年三月至秋初時，便會出現一波流行造成全台灣的恐慌，而五歲以下幼童成為高危險群，最易受到襲擊併發重症及死亡，其重症致死率約在10.0%至25.7%之間。由於腸病毒的傳染途徑難以預防，共有六十餘種類型病毒，在目前無疫苗及特效藥等情況之下，僅能藉由傳染阻絕政策來防止疫情的擴散，所以我們急需一個腸病毒傳播動態模型，利用二分關聯網絡及社會分身點概念，以多個代理人系統之日常生活接觸底層網絡，並建構腸病毒傳播動態電腦模擬模型。 本研究藉此平台模擬腸病毒傳播動態，並進一步評估比較流行期間勤洗手戴口罩、停止上班上課、居家隔離等阻絕政策，來探討在大流行期間，腸病毒疫情阻絕政策在各施行的時間點之成效及影響性。並結合台灣地區腸病毒歷年疫情統計，及小世界網絡性質，來驗證我們所建立的腸病毒傳播動態電腦模擬模型是正確的。

Since the 1998 outbreak of Enterovirus infection in Taiwan, a large-scale pandemic would take place between early March and the beginning of autumn every year, causing panic all over Taiwan. Children under five have become a high-risk group and are most vulnerable to be hit with severe complications and even death; the mortality rate for this group is approximately between 10.0% and 25.7%. Transmission of Enterovirus infections is difficult to prevent, and there are more than sixty types of these viruses. Given that there are no vaccine or miracle drug to date, we are in desperate need of a model for Enterovirus transmission dynamics. A computer simulation model of Enterovirus transmission dynamics has been built using bipartite affiliation network, social mirror identity concept, multi-agent system and routine contact network. This study uses the above-mentioned platform to simulate the network of transmission routes and further evaluates and compares the elimination and eradication policies such as frequent hand-washing and putting on masks, no classes and no work, and residential quarantine implemented during the epidemic to explore the effectiveness and effect at various times when these eradication measures are administered. Statistics on Enterovirus infection in Taiwan over the past years were integrated to verify that the established computer simulation model of the Enterovirus transmission dynamics is accurate.