标题: 航空网路中航班延误之因果模式
A Causal Model for Flight Delays in an Airline Network
作者: 蔡世昌
Tsai, Shy-Chang
汪进财
Wong, Jinn-Tsai
运输与物流管理学系
关键字: 航班延误扩散、存活分析、Cox等比例危险模式、延误成本;Flight delay propagation, Survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards model, Delay costs
公开日期: 2012
摘要: 航班延误由于会造成航空公司与旅客的不便和额外之成本,因此为一值得关心之议题,本研究旨在针对航机于多机场间之延误扩散及航空公司之改善延误的方法之效果提出分析方法。由于航班之地面与空中运作存在随机变化的特质,本研究分析航班之抵达与离开机场之延误背后的因素,以厘清航空公司之班表运作过程中各阶段可能受到的干扰因子。
本研究利用一家台湾之航空公司的国内线航班资料,以Cox等比例危险模式构建航班抵达与离开机场之延误模式,本模式可显示在航班运作过程中之航班延误扩散的形成。分析结果显示,起飞之航班所受到的延误因素较多,相对而言,抵达机场的航班所受到的影响因素主要为气候及航路与拟降落机场的航管因素,因此,大部分抵达机场的航班之延误除了起飞机场已形成的延误外,均非航空公司所能控制,隐含的意义为避免起飞机场的延误才是根本解决抵达延误的有效方法。本研究所求出的危险比例可用来衡量在不同情境下延误的航班恢复正常运作的机会大小,并可分析个别的延误影响因子对于航空公司班表的可靠度之影响程度。
为减少航班延误所造成的影响,航空公司无不积极投入地面与空中运作的不确定性事件之预防工作,因此,本研究进一步利用所构建的航班抵达与离开机场之延误模式,分析航空公司所采取的改善延误之方法的有效性,其中包括对于缩短地面作业时间及增加地面与空中运作的缓冲时间之效果的评估,主要的作法为针对投入改善的成本和所减少的延误之利益进行净效益的估算。
虽然增加缓冲时间可以减少一些航班的延误时间,研究发现在考量到缓冲时间的成本之情况下,这种改善延误的作法对航空公司不一定有利,研究结果并发现,在动态的运作环境中,增加缓冲时间不一定能大幅改善航班的延误状况。因此,航空公司可能需要进一步分析真正影响航班延误的背后之主要因素,在采取许多复杂的改善方法之前,应该先有一套适切的延误管理计画。本研究对于航空公司班表与航班延误扩散之关系提供进一步的了解,因此,对于班表运作的控制及延误的管理有相当大的助益。
Flight delays are a source of great concern as they generate disruptions and increase costs for airlines and passengers. The aim of this research is to propose approaches to examine flight delay propagation in a multiple-airport environment and to evaluate the effectiveness of delay improvement schemes adopted by airlines. Due to the stochastic characteristics of turnaround and block operations, this research investigates the factors behind the mechanisms of departure and arrival delays to clarify the phases and activities involved in flight delays through an airline schedule.
The Cox proportional hazards model, a method widely applied in survival analysis, is used to develop departure and arrival delay models involving a Taiwanese domestic airline. The proposed models show how flight delay propagation can be formulated through repeated chain effects in aircraft rotations. The results shows that whilst outbound flights are subject to a wider range of difficulties leading to delays, inbound flights can be delayed by weather or air traffic control restrictions en-route or at destination airport. Hence, most arrival delays are beyond the control of airlines except for delays that develop at departure airports. This implies that developing the means to prevent departure delays could be the key to reducing arrival delays from the origin. The hazard ratios obtained provide measures of the chances of recovering from flight delays under a variety of situations and the effects that individual contributing factors of flight delays have on airline schedule reliability.
To manage flight delays, airlines are prepared for the unexpected stochastic events of turnaround and block operations. This research further uses the obtained departure and arrival delay models to examine delay improvement schemes, including shorting required ground handling time and increasing buffer time for turnaround and en-route aircraft. The costs of schemes and the savings of delay costs are investigated to evaluate the net benefits of schemes by recursively combining the departure and arrival delay models.
Though buffer time may save some delays, it is found that it may not be cost effective for airlines when the costs of buffer minutes are taken into account. The results also reveal that delays may not be greatly improved through this measure in the dynamic operating environment. Thus, airlines may investigate the significant contributing factors of delays and design a suitable delay management program before jumping into some sophisticated measures. The findings provide a better understanding of the relationship between planned schedules and delay propagation, and are thus useful for schedule control and delay management.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079236801
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/40449
显示于类别:Thesis


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