達成最大銷售反應之促銷時間最適化

Abstract

賣家通常會在網路市場 (Internet Marketing) 上設定一個有時間限制的促銷活動，這樣使得產品可以快速在網站購物中賣出。本文建立了一個決策支援系統 (Decision Support System)，決定最適化時間限制的天數 (Optimal time limits)，以達到網路購物中的最大銷售反應率與最大利潤。本文把促銷時間的效果分為二個相反的力量，一是知覺率(Awareness)，另一為緊急率 (Urgency) ，這兩個函數，應用在促銷反應率的效果上，並且這二力量模型應用為雙曲線 (Hyperbolic functions) 的S型函數。在本文中使用決策計算 (Decision Calculus) 分析的方法，可以輸入不同的參數以為決策，決定最適的促銷期間。本文提出的這個新決策系統，用真實世界實例加以實證應用，也導出以此實例為中心點的一些敏感度分析，進一步也比較雙曲線函數與簡單指數函數，在不同反應率下，其中數個最適解的差別，發現在網路促銷時間上，雙曲線函數的結果會較適當。本文的貢獻在決策支援系統上，提供了新的方法應用在網際網路購物活動，來決定最適的促銷推廣時間。

Sellers usually set a promotional time limit to ensure that products can be sold as soon as possible in Internet markets. This research attempts to build a decision support system that optimizes the time limit for maximum sales response or profit in Internet shopping promotions. We decompose the effect of time limits into two opposing forces, which are the awareness and urgency of a promotional offer that are depicted as hyperbolic S-shaped functions. Using the decision calculus approach, we can determine the optimal promotional time limit with different input parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed system with real world examples and conduct some sensitivity analyses. We compare our numerical results from hyperbolic functions with those from simple exponential functions; we find that hyperbolic functions yield more appropriate promotional time limits on Internet. This research contributes to the field of decision support by providing a new approach to determining the optimal time limit for online sales promotions.