資本結構決定因素 -半導體及影像顯示產業的實證

Abstract

本文主要的目的有三：(一)了解國內兩兆產業：半導體及影像顯示產業的資本結構決定因素(二) 探討企業資本結構影響因素在長期追縱下，其在時間上的穩定度。(三)金融因素對資本結構之解釋能力。本研究採兩階段研究設計：第一階段運用因素分析法及逐步迴歸，進行重複十年之橫斷面(cross-section)研究，萃取出影響公司資本結構之因素，並觀察這些因素在十年之中的變異程度。第二階段先加入新的金融解釋變數，並將樣本以跨公司及時間序列方式(pooling of cross-section and time series data)混和後，切割為兩組，分別做為反應金融環境變遷前、後之資料，然後同樣運用因素分析以解決變數共線性之問題。本研究獲致以下三項主要結論： 一、「公司規模」、「獲利能力」、「資產抵押價值」及「股利政策」、「產業別」在本論文實證過程中，不因時間改變而影響其解釋能力，亦不受金融環境變化所影響，是五個最穩定的資本結構決定因素。「成長性」則為較不穩定的解釋因素。 二、「金融因素」在第二階段金融環境變遷前的實證裡為顯著的因素，使金融變數會影響公司籌資行為的假設獲得了證實，但穩定性不高。 三、國內的兩兆產中經營風險高之公司，反而舉借更多債務，建議高風險公司應適度減少債務，以降低經營上之風險。 關鍵字：資本結構、負債比率、半導體產業、影像顯示產業

The three main purposes of this study are: First, to understand the determinants of corporate capital structure of Taiwan’s semiconductor and display industry. Second, to empirically examine the variation of determinants of corporate capital structure choice over time by tracing Taiwan’s empirical data form 1996-2007. Third, to explore the possible association between financial market and corporate capital structure. Our study has adopted a two-stage design. In the first stage, we conducted repetitive procedures to analyze the ten-year cross-section data. We utilized the factor analysis approach to mitigate the multicollinearity problem among proxies and the stepwise regression to extract the significant factors. In the second stage, we first added financial variables such as stock index into our data used in the first stage, then made a pooling of cross-section and time series data, and finally divided the data into two subsets reflecting different financial infrastructure. We extracted the significant factors respectively in the two subset study.Our study has reached the following conclusions: 1.”Size”,”Profitability”,”Collateral Asset Value”, ”Dividend policy” and “Industry” are the most stable determinant factors of capital structure. The explanation power of these five factors do not vary with time nor financial variables. However, “Growth” factor is not a stable factor. 2.The ”financial factor” has proven to be a significant determinant prior to the change of Taiwan financial infrastructure. But it is not stable. 3.The high risk companies in Taiwan’s semiconductor and display industries have borrowed even more money. De-leverage to lower risks is recommended. Key Words: Capital Structure, Debt ratio, Semiconductor industry, Display industry.