金磚四國的經濟發展與環境汙染之分析研究

Abstract

本研究使用縱橫型態資料，探討新興國家(如金磚四國：巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國) 在1971至2005年間(俄羅斯，1990-2005)的二氧化碳排放量、能源消耗量和經濟成長的動態因果關係。研究結果顯示，三者間有長期均衡關係，且能源消耗量對碳排放量有顯著正向影響，而國內生產毛額(GDP)和碳排放量有倒 U 型曲線關係，即碳排放量會隨著經濟成長的增加而逐漸惡化，產生漸增—穩定—衰減三階段變化。另外，碳排放的短期變化量大部份是受到前一期系統偏離均衡產生的誤差量和能源消耗的短期變化量所影響，而GDP的短期變化量對碳放量的影響相對較小。另一方面，當此系統偏離長期均衡時，金磚四國以趨近0.77(俄羅斯)至5.85年(巴西)之速度進行調整。 由動態因果關係分析顯示， 碳排放量與能源消耗量有著雙向強因果關係，碳排放量和能源消耗量分別對GDP有單向強因果關係。且碳排放量對GDP有負向影響。另外，能源消耗量與GDP有長期雙向因果關係。因此，可以推論新興國家(如金磚四國)是能源相依的國家。由於金磚四國的能源密度普遍高於均值，在不會反向影響經濟成長的前提下，本研究建議新興的能源依賴國應該增加能源供應端的投資和提昇能源效率，並加強節約能源政策，以減少不必要的能源浪費，提昇環境品質，以達到京都議定書的標準。

This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005, except for Russia (1990-2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption-emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption-output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries.