以投入-產出模式分析觀光業對台灣經濟發展之影響

Abstract

本研究主要利用Leontief之投入產出模式，探討台灣地區在2004年至2008年間，觀光產業對台灣經濟之衝擊與影響，及其在各產業間之地位。由於行政院主計處至目前為止所公佈最新一期產業關聯表為2004年，因此，本研究須以估計誤差最小之RAS法進行投入產出係數調整，調整至2005年到2008年投入產出係數表。並以行政院主計處公佈161部門為基礎，簡化至14個部門進行經濟效果分析，分析內容包括產業關聯效果、產出效果、所得效果與就業效果。 研究結果顯示，觀光業直接相關之部門，其產業關聯效果在各產業排名中屬於中間及落後階段，表示觀光業並非領導性產業，在觀光產業中，則以運輸服務業和電影、藝文與娛樂業在帶動其他產業發展中有較大的貢獻能力。由於近年政府對於觀光業之重視與推廣，由關聯效果之貢獻比率來看，觀光相關產業在各產業排名中，零售業和餐飲與旅館服務業已實現之向後及向前關聯效果位居前五名，而電影、藝文與娛樂業已實現之向前關聯效果，則位居各產業第二名，顯示觀光業在帶動與支持其他產業發展已有明顯成效，在未來觀光產業將對於我國經濟發展有一定程度的重要性。在乘數效果方面，觀光相關之產業以電影、藝文與娛樂業和運輸服務業之產量乘數最大；以零售業及餐飲與旅館服務業之所得及就業乘數位居各產業之前，表示觀光產業將有益於降低我國失業率，並提高國民所得。

This thesis attempts to explore the economic influence of tourism industry and to analyze the status of tourism among all industries in Taiwan from 2004 to 2008 by Leontief Input-Output Model. The latest Transaction Table we can collect was announced in 2004 by Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan. Therefore, we need to use the RAS method with the least measurable error to adjust the Input-Output Coefficients in Tables from 2005 to 2008. This thesis simplifies Transaction Table of 161 departments into 14 departments and conducts the economic effect analysis, including industrial linkage effect, output effect, income effect and employment effect. The result shows that the industrial linkage effect of tourism stands at about the middle or rear position among all industries; in other words, tourism is not a leader of industries. Related to tourism industry, transportation and entertainment industries can have more contributions to improving economic development. In recent years, our government popularized and paid much attention to the tourism industry, so the realized industrial linkage effect of tourism was ahead of other industries. The realized forward and backward linkage effects of retailing and hotel services and catering industry were ranked at top fifth place. The realized forward linkage effects of movies, arts and entertainment industry were ranked at top second place. It reflects that tourism industry could promote and support economic development. In multiplier effects, the output multipliers of entertainment industry have better performance among tourism industry. The employment and income multipliers of retailing and hotel services and catering industry were ranked top place. It shows that tourism industry is able to reduce unemployment rate and increase national income.