外人直接投資越南的決定因素

Abstract

Although Vietnam has attracted lots of foreign direct investment (FDI) over last two decades, Vietnam still suffers from a trade deficit with China which has become an export-oriented economy. As a way to diagnose this problem, this study aims to examine the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Vietnam, focused particularly on differences between two groups of top investors: Asian and non-Asian countries. The panel data regression model was built for each group of investors considering four determinants: relative gross domestic product (GDP), openness by adding exports and imports, relative wages, and relative exchange rates between Vietnam and FDI home countries. We selected these four determinants out of seven candidates based on step-wise regression modeling by SAS. According to the results, Asian investors’ FDI showed a significant positive relationship with relative GDP and openness, but a significant negative relationship with relative wages and relative exchange rates. Non-Asian investors’ FDI showed a significant positive relationship with relative GDP, but a significant negative relationship with relative wage. Openness and relative exchange rates were insignificant for non-Asian investors. From these results, we conclude that, in Vietnam, Asian investors are market-seeking FDI and resources-seeking for which market size or rate of return are important when deciding whether to invest. Non-Asian investors are rather efficiency-seeking FDI for which low cost of labor and/or infrastructure is more important than market openness and/or exchange rate. These results imply that the largest investors in Vietnam, Asian investors, have invested in Vietnam as a way to expand markets for their products. Related data also supports conclusions from our study. Keywords – Vietnam, foreign direct investment, market-seeking FDI, efficiency-seeking FDI

Although Vietnam has attracted lots of foreign direct investment (FDI) over last two decades, Vietnam still suffers from a trade deficit with China which has become an export-oriented economy. As a way to diagnose this problem, this study aims to examine the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Vietnam, focused particularly on differences between two groups of top investors: Asian and non-Asian countries. The panel data regression model was built for each group of investors considering four determinants: relative gross domestic product (GDP), openness by adding exports and imports, relative wages, and relative exchange rates between Vietnam and FDI home countries. We selected these four determinants out of seven candidates based on step-wise regression modeling by SAS. According to the results, Asian investors’ FDI showed a significant positive relationship with relative GDP and openness, but a significant negative relationship with relative wages and relative exchange rates. Non-Asian investors’ FDI showed a significant positive relationship with relative GDP, but a significant negative relationship with relative wage. Openness and relative exchange rates were insignificant for non-Asian investors. From these results, we conclude that, in Vietnam, Asian investors are market-seeking FDI and resources-seeking for which market size or rate of return are important when deciding whether to invest. Non-Asian investors are rather efficiency-seeking FDI for which low cost of labor and/or infrastructure is more important than market openness and/or exchange rate. These results imply that the largest investors in Vietnam, Asian investors, have invested in Vietnam as a way to expand markets for their products. Related data also supports conclusions from our study. Keywords – Vietnam, foreign direct investment, market-seeking FDI, efficiency-seeking FDI