實質選擇權賽局與策略投資： 面板產業之應用

Abstract

在大尺寸面板產業中，台灣、韓國的幾間領導廠商幾乎占據了整個市場。在面板業發展過程中，企業的整併一直是降低成本、達到規模經濟的重要方式。本文以友達光電為主角，探討友達和奇美可能之合併，及八點五代廠量產的時機，以實質選擇權與賽局理論作為研究方法，分析各階段投資的最佳決策。在研究過程中，將友達及其在大尺寸面板的主要競爭對手決策均納入考量，並以情境分析改變單位成本、期初投資、市場波動、無風險利率等因素，以衡量決策是否會因此改變。結論是單位成本和期初投資對淨現值影響極微，市場波動和無風險利率影響較大。而除非市場波動很大，否則友達都須先量產搶占先機。合併雖然能降低生產成本，但是對計畫的淨現值並無產生太大的影響。

Taiwan and Korea are the leading countries in large size panel TFT-LCD industry. In the development of TFT-LCD industry, M&A has been an important strategy to achieve the economy of scale. This paper will use AUO as the main character to evaluate the possible merger of AUO and CMO, and use real options and game theory as the methodology. Although the change in risk-free rate and volatility does have a significant influence to the project value, the best strategy of AUO is still to invest and take the first mover advantage, unless under large volatility. As for the M&A issue, merge with CMO can surely decrease the fixed cost, but the project value cannot increase significantly.