以自組織映射神經網路於TFT-LCD產業

Abstract

近年來，企業受到總體經濟環境的快速變化而使得面對產業趨勢的掌握與選擇未來產品發展的方向上增添許多困難，同時錯誤的判斷將會導致公司面臨財務上的危機，特別是在台灣屬於『兩兆雙星計畫』的TFT-LCD產業。面對全球需求的預測、廠房的擴建以及產品的發展，對於產業循環有效的掌握，更是企業發展的重要關鍵。然而回顧以往學者的研究，皆以統計的分析與專家意見法進行產業趨勢分析，或僅以靜態的財務報表為分析的依據，本研究基於上述因素期望以全盤式的考量在動態環境下能掌握產業的趨勢。而由於近年來有許多學者採用類神經網路之非監督式學習－自組織映射圖神經網路於財務危機及體質檢定的趨勢發展之應用均有不錯之成果。故本研究將針對產業趨勢與產品發展分別利用自組織映射圖神經網路及階層式自組織映射圖神經網路，建構企業營運及產品發展模型。 本研究中的『企業營運模型』利用靜態與動態兩種構面對於產業趨勢進行非監督式的分群檢定及自組織映射圖神經網路的視覺化能力，將趨勢漸變的過程以軌跡方式投射於二維平面，分析趨勢移動的軌跡，並藉此找出趨勢發展的領先指標。而『產品發展趨勢模型』則利用產品相關資料，透過一階變量處理及正規化處理，運用階層式自組織映射圖神經網路所建構而成。 研究結果顯示『企業營運模型』能有效掌握產業趨勢的變化與應用產品的變化作為領先指標；而『產品發展趨勢模型』則對於應用產品的後續發展能提出資源投入的建議。

In recent years, the rapidly fluctuations of macroeconomics to make business enterprises more difficult to get the right views about industry trend and product development trend and corporations to face financial crises depending on the wrong decision at the same time ,especially in the TFT-LCD field belonging to “Two Trillion Double Stars Facilitation Plan” in Taiwan. The major factor of business development is to completely catch the business cycle base on the prediction of world wide demand, expansion of facility, and product development trend. However, prior researches on those business cycle models were used to do estimate with statistic analysis, Expert Opinion or static financial statements to support their conclusions. This research base on the above factors expectation is totally masters the industry trend under the dynamic environment. It is such a good result for a lot of scholars to use an unsupervised learning, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) of a neural network, to analyze those financial crises and the trend of constitution judgments. Therefore, this study proposes to use Self-Organizing Map and hierarchical SOM on “Business Operation and Product Development Model”. Business Operation Model of this paper is to come out leading signal of industry trend by judging industry trend in static and dynamic points of view with using unsupervised clustering and visualization capability of SOM and following to have the moving the trajectory into two dimension girds and finally analyze the steps. And, the Product Development Trend Model is to rely on product related data to establish with one-step variable process, normalization, and the Hierarchical SOM. The present research of “Business Operation Model” plays a leading role to effectively identify the application of TFT-LCD information in the business cycle and. “Product Development Model” can propose a suggestion to make an investing decision.