台灣太陽能系統產業之策略分析

Abstract

本研究以產業組合分析模式探討台灣太陽能系統產業之發展方向，模型中以產業供應鏈為橫軸，以市場(技術)成長曲線作為模型的縱軸，在研究方法上採取文獻分析、專家訪談、專家問卷調查，佐以無母數統計方法以進行小樣本專家問卷之推論，並據此建議政府於發展太陽能系統產業時所應支援之產業政策。 本研究所得之主要結論如下：我國獨立型(Stand-alone)太陽能光電系統目前介於產業價值鏈上的生產與製造階段，預估未來朝向市場應用趨勢發展；在產業市場(技術)成長曲線目前處於萌芽期與成長期之間，預估未來仍朝向成長期發展。市電併聯型(Grid-Connected) 太陽能光電系統目前介於產業價值鏈上的基礎研發階段，預估未來朝向生產與製造以及市場應用趨勢發展；在產業市場 (技術) 成長曲線目前處於萌芽期，預估未來仍朝向萌芽期發展。緊急防災型(獨立/併聯混合型) 太陽能光電系統目前介於產業價值鏈上的基礎研發階段，預估未來朝向生產與製造以及市場應用趨勢發展；在產業市場 (技術) 成長曲線目前處於萌芽期，預估未來仍朝向生產與製造以及市場應用發展。 本研究針對我國太陽能系統產業產業組合定位中之創新資源，歸納出目前在台灣太陽能系統產業中，產業環境配合度顯著不足之產業創新需求資源有「研究發展」、「研究環境」、「技術知識」、「市場情勢」、「市場環境」、「人力資源」等六項。歸納出未來在台灣太陽能系統產業目前發展領域中，產業環境配合度顯著不足之產業創新需求資源「技術知識」一項。發展所需的產業創新需求要素及對應政策工具，進而得出我國太陽能系統產業目前與未來應首先建立「技術知識」這項創新資源，可作為政府規劃扶植此產業時的具體參考。

This research aims at analyzing future development of Taiwan’s photovoltaic systems industry. A portfolio model is used, entailing a two-dimensional matrix, in which the market s-curve and the supply chain. Three research methods are used for data collection, including literature review, expert interview, and questionnaire. The parametric and nonparametric techniques of statistical methods are both used to analyze quantitative data. Research results reveal the present and future stratetic imperatives for the industry. Not only does it provide a clear understanding of policy direction, it also suggests the strategic resource allocation of the industry. Results show stand-alone is positioned at the mass-production of the value chain, and also between the burgeoning and developing of the market s-curve. Future prospects should be placed at the position of developing stage, and base on the mass-production region to move to market-application region. Grid-connected is positioned at the basic-research of the value chain, and also the burgeoning of the market s-curve. Future prospects should be placed at the position of burgeoning stage, and base on the basic-research region to move to between mass-production and market-application region. Hybrid stand-alone and Grid-connected is positioned at the basic-research of the value chain, and also the burgeoning of the market s-curve. Future prospects should be placed at the position of developing stage, and base on the basic-research region to move to between mass-production and market-application region. Future analysis leads to conclusion that the most critical catergories of policy instruments is “Technologh knowledge”.