碳回地底：二氧化碳捕獲與封存技術(CCS)之未來發展與預測

Abstract

本論文之研究宗旨主要在對二氧化碳捕獲與封存技術(CO2 Capture and Storage,CCS)之發展現況進行了解，並利用趨勢外差法(Exponential Trends)來預測二氧化碳捕獲與封存技術(CO2 Capture and Storage,CCS)的未來二氧化碳減排潛力。此類技術涉及國家能源結構、產業發展與競爭力、衝擊經濟發展，並提供未來可能的「零碳排放」能源系統。更期盼藉由此研究報告，尤其是京都議定書（Kyoto Protocol）已於2005年2月16日開始生效後，提供建議給台灣相關產業，以排除因忽視二氧化碳排放量，所可能造成我國未來國際貿易的障礙。 本研究是以二氧化碳排放量預測為基礎，尤其是能源工業的二氧化碳排放量預測，並以四大預測方向：一、從全球二氧化碳捕獲與封存現況看CCS；二、全球能源工業使用CCS技術促使二氧化碳減排的潛力；三、台灣能源工業與火力發電廠使用CCS技術促使二氧化碳減排的潛力；四、台灣看全球，來預測CCS之未來二氧化碳減排潛力。 結果發現：CCS之二氧化碳減排潛力不容小覷，回到1990年以前的排放量無不可能。根據IPCC特別報告指出，目前採用CCS技術的電廠可降低二氧化碳排放量約90%，若考慮封存後二氧化碳會滲漏問題，則可降低二氧化碳排放量約90%＊95%。因此，國際間能源科技發展重點方向無不以加強高效率、清潔化石能源發電技術與二氧化碳捕獲與封存技術(CCS)，以應用於化石燃料電廠來作為重點項目。

The purpose of this research is to have furthur understanding of the development of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technique and to predict the potential for lowering the emission of CO2 by using Exponential Trends. This technique is related to national energy structure, industry development and competitiveness and economic development impact. It can serve as a “Zero Emission” energy system. In this research, some suggestions are offered to those industries in Taiwan which, ignoring the CO2 emission, may have trouble conducting international trades, especially after the implement of Kyoto Protocol on February 16, 2005. The research is based on the prediction of CO2 emission of energy industry. There are four categories in the research: A. CCS based on the current global CO2 capture and storage. B. Global energy industries’ potential for lowering CO2 emission by using CCS technique. C. Taiwan energy industries and thermal power plants’ potential for lowering CO2 emission by using CCS technique. D. Prediction of global potential for lowering CO2 emission from Taiwan’s perspectives. The result is that we cannot overlook the potential for lowering CO2 emission to the amount before 1990. According to IPCC special report, power plants, which used CCS technique, could lower 90%＊95% emission, considering the leakage of CO2. Therefore, the development of international energy technology is mainly on raising the efficiency of CCS technique applied to power plants.