股利政策及投資成長對公司績效之抵換關係

Abstract

本研究以2001年至2008年的美國上市公司為主要研究樣本，探討公司的股利政策及投資機會是否與公司的績效與價值存在抵換關係。本研究為第一篇採用盈餘的流量與存量作為區分公司特質，並以Panel Regression的方式來研究不同特性的公司發放現金股利與投資之間是否存在交互作用，並且對公司價值、績效產生何種影響。本研究發現資本支出愈高對公司的績效與價值有顯著且正向的影響，但此結果在2008年金融海嘯期間並不顯著。同樣地，公司發放較高的現金股利對股價會有正向而且顯著的影響，此符合宣告效果。另外，研究結果顯示若一間有獲利的公司在成長機會不足的情況下，發放越高的股利對公司的價值及績效都有顯著的正向影響，這個結果符合自由現金流量假說。公司在淨利,保留盈餘或FCF為負的情況下發放愈多的現金股利，公司的績效會愈差，公司在保留盈餘或FCF為負情況下發放愈多的現金股利會有愈高的股價及資產報酬，符合宣告效果。公司在淨利為負的情況下，即使FCF或保留盈餘為正，發放愈多的股利也無法使股價或ROA上升，此結果與宣告效果不一致。

This paper is the first attempt to examine the relationship between the flow and stock of earnings and the dividend payout policy on firm performance. We also examine the relationship between growth opportunity and firm’s performance. The empirical results show that the firm with higher capital expenditures, that is, more growth opportunities, enjoys the better performance. Also, firms pay cash dividend will increase the share return, which is corresponding to signal effect. Profitable firms should pay higher cash dividend if there is no growth opportunity, which is corresponding to Free Cash Flow hypothesis. Firms have negative net income, retained earnings or FCF pay higher cash dividend will have lower Tobin’s Q. Firms with positive net income and negative retained earnings (or FCF) that pay higher cash dividend will have higher share return and ROA, which is also corresponding to signal effect. However, firms with negative net income and positive retained earnings (or FCF) that pay cash dividend will have lower share return and ROA, this result is not consistent with signal effect.