以投資人情緒分析中華開發敵意併購金鼎證券與欣興電子善意併購全懋科技之併購案

Abstract

併購案件日漸增多的情況越趨明顯，主動啟動併購的原因很多，通常是水平整合，或者垂直整合，高估併購所帶來的綜效，也許會帶來贏家詛咒。從這個論點，衍生出到底經理人的決策是否基於理性且宏觀的思考下決策，投資人如何運用自己的力量反映出信任或不信任，投資人或者決策的高階經理人是否能夠在併購的初期，就能事先知道併購的結果?! 本論文以Kasper(2008)的論文作為出發點，依據其觀察的假設，選定了中華開發金控敵意併購金鼎證券與欣興電子與全懋科技的善意併購作為探討主題，藉由投資人情緒的計算，證實了Kasper該論文的假說，同時也證實了投資人情緒的變化走勢也適用於台灣的公司，可以事先反映出併購之成功或失敗，藉由這樣的分析可以節省主併公司的併購成本，或者提供投資人對併購案件的成敗可有事先的結論，如果搭配著其他產業面或者大環境的思考，也許可以替投資人提高投資報酬率。

After the Financial Tsunami occurred at the end of 2008, the number of takeover cases has gradually increased in Taiwan, as same as the amount of such cases. Since the diversified takeover types and complicated takeover frameworks, the simplicity of takeover case has been increased that has also satisfied high-rank manages with their desire for expanding their business domain. However, whether managers’ decisions have made on the basis of rational and macroscopic thinking or not? How investors make use of their own capabilities to reflect their trust or doubt? Whether investors or high-rank decision-makers are capable of foreseeing the overtake result at the early stage of such overtake case? This study is adopted the thesis of Kasper (2008) as the starting point and based on the hypothesis of his observation to choose the hostile overtake of China Development Financial Holdings to Taiwan International Securities Group, and the friendly overtake of Unimicron Technology Corp. to Phoenix Precision Technology Corporation as the case study. By making use these 2 pairs of overtake cases and the comparison between different types of these 2 overtake cases, as well as using the computation of the investor sentiment to conduct the exploration of analysis on these two cases; at last, it has not only approved the hypothesis of Kasper’s thesis, but also verified the change tendency of investor sentiment that can be used to foresee the success or failure for these overtake cases. In addition, it is also applicable to Taiwanese companies or enterprises. Through such analysis, its result can save the overtake cost for the acquiring companies, or provide investors with foreseeing the success or failure for such overtake case. Moreover, it may possibly be improved the Return On Investment (ROI) for investors if accompanied the thinking of other industrial aspects or the macro-environment.