兩岸商業銀行逾放比之比較研究

Abstract

本研究欲探討兩岸銀行逾期放款的情形，透過兩岸銀行逾放比的差異與造成差異的原因，來了解兩岸銀行風險控管的情形。自BANKSCOPE資料庫中選取大陸地區82家商業銀行，台灣地區39家商業銀行為研究對象，研究期間為2003年到2008年。根據Hausman 檢定結果，使用縱橫面資料中的固定效果模型為分析依據，應變數為逾期放款比例，自變數則為總資產、存款量、放款量、資本適足率、利息收入比例、股東權益報酬率及員工人數。 兩岸商業銀行研究結果顯示，「總資產」及「資本適足率」對逾放比呈現顯著負向影響；顯示資產規模大、充足的資本有利於銀行打銷呆帳。而「存款量」和「放款量」則對逾放比呈現顯著正向影響，因資金成本的壓力以及對放款業績的追求，易使銀行承做高風險的放款，提升倒帳機率。以台灣地區而言，顯著變數中「資本適足率」與逾期放款比例呈現顯著負向影響；而「股東權益報酬率」、「利息收入比例」則與逾期放款比例呈現顯著正向影響。而大陸地區商業銀行的資料分析結果則是「總資產」、「資本適足率」與逾放比呈現顯著負向影響；而「存款量」、「放款量」則與逾放比呈現正向影響。由於影響兩岸逾放比的變數不同，因此宜採用不同的方法來改善逾期放款的問題。

This study explores the non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks in Taiwan and mainland China. The risk management is examined by comparing the difference of the ratio of NPLs and searching for the causes. A panel data set is collected for 82 banks in mainland China and 39 banks in Taiwan from 2003 to 2008. In the panel data regression model, the dependent variable is the ratio of NPLs while independent variables are total assets, deposits, loans, capital adequacy ratio, interest revenue ratio, return on equity (ROE), and the number of employees. According to the Hausman test, fixed-effects model is used to estimate. The results show that total assets and capital adequacy ratio of the two areas have significantly negative effects on the ratio of NPLs, and deposits and loans have significantly positive effects on the ratio of NPLs. The more resources and capabilities of dealing with risk banks have, the more likely they can reduce NPLs. However, pursuing better performance tends to lead to high NPLs. In Taiwan capital adequacy ratio has a significantly negative effect on the ratio of NPLs whereas both ROE and interest revenue ratio have significantly positive effects on the ratio of NPLs. In mainland China, both total assets and capital adequacy ratio have significantly negative effects on the ratio of NPLs whereas deposits and loans have significantly positive effects on the ratio of NPLs. Since the variables affecting the NPLs in Taiwan and mainland China are different, there are different ways to improve the problems of NPLs.