永續運輸政策認知之實證研究

Abstract

本研究主要目的是針對永續運輸政策相關利害關係人（包括資深公務員及一般民眾）的潛在心理構面進行探索，並發展一個概念性架構來衡量其對政策的認知。我們綜合個人對政策信仰的主觀限制與客觀考量，概念化成為一種潛在心理構面，進一步探究政策信仰有助於政策制定之始洞悉利害關係人的偏好，並可事先預測政策執行的效果。本研究首先討論政策信仰的定義及可能影響政策信仰的因素，接著導入一個有效的方法論來衡量資深公務員及一般民眾政策信仰；其次，我們將透過實證研究來取得資深公務員及一般民眾對永續運輸的政策信仰，並比較兩者之間的差異。 本研究使用Rasch模式針對資深公務員及一般民眾對永續運輸的政策信仰以數量化的方式進行評估，研究結果發現，不管是資深公務員或一般民眾，都偏好支持不會限制人民偏好或自由的政策，也都認為提供更有效、更友善的公共運輸服務會比透過提高使用成本來限制私人運具使用更能達成永續運輸的目的。分析資深公務員的社經特性則發現，在同一工作職務愈久、累積工作經驗愈多、擁有權力愈大，則愈相信自己本身有能力制定政策、愈能夠判斷政策可行性，在執行政策時也愈有信心。 進一步觀察一般民眾使用通勤工具與永續運輸政策信仰的關係，發現使用公共運輸工具通勤者與一般大眾對永續運輸政策的偏好是相同的，兩者都認為「開發新能源技術」是對永續運輸發展最有幫助的政策；相對地，對使用私人運具通勤以及回答未來有意願減少私人運具使用者，則比一般大眾更相信「興建軌道運輸系統」更能夠達成永續運輸環境的政策目標。 透過DIF分析，本研究同時發現使用公共運輸及沒有小汽車的人則分別比使用私人運具通勤與擁有小汽車者更認同「都會區實施擁擠收費」以及「提高油價或停車費」等經濟管制措施。但相對地，使用私人運具通勤與擁有小汽車者會分別比使用公共運輸及沒有小汽車的人更認同「提供即時資訊」、「補貼改裝LPG車」，以及「實施ETC」等項目是有助於永續運輸。而是否擁有小客車的不同族群透過DIF分析也得到前述相同的結果。 此外，本研究透過獨立樣本t檢定來檢視資深公務員與一般民眾對政策認知的差異，結果發現兩者對「興建軌道運輸系統」的支持度一致，但對其他政策項目則顯示資深公務員比一般民眾對政策是否有助於永續運輸發展的評估要更為保守，這顯示一般民眾比較樂觀看待永續運輸政策的推動，也比參與政策制定的資深公務員更支持永續運輸相關政策。

The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual framework to measure stakeholders’ policy beliefs on sustainable transportation implementation and then conduct experimental trials aimed at exploring stakeholders’ policy beliefs. We conceptualized policy belief as the combined effect of people’s objective constraints and subjective considerations, and viewed it as a latent trait. Exploring policy beliefs can provide insights regarding the mindset of those initiating policies and, thus, help predict outcomes prior to implementation. In this study, we first discuss the development of policy beliefs and the factors affecting their development. An effective approach for measuring senior officials’ and the general public’s policy beliefs is then suggested. Next, we describe an empirical study of the policy beliefs of senior officials and the general public, as well as a comparison of two groups of stakeholders. This study quantitatively evaluated beliefs about sustainable transportation policies from senior officials and the general public by using the Rasch model since it has been intensively used in psychometric studies to estimate values on an interval scale based on ordinal responses. The results have shown that not only senior officials but also the general public believe that providing a more efficient and friendly public transportation service to attract people’s patronage would be more practicable than limiting private car use by increasing usage costs. For the senior officials, the longer an official is in a position the more experience and power he or she will attain; thus, seniority, experience, and power tend to drive policy success. As the officials become more senior they gain more administrative experience and the better they feel they can judge policy feasibility; they are more confident when implementing policy. Furthermore, by extending the results based on respondents’ commuting modes we found the policy preference rankings from the public transport commuters are the same as from the general public. “Developing new energy sources” was found to be the strategy in which both the private and the public transport commuters were most confident for implementing sustainable transportation policy. However, for people who commuted by private transport and were willing to act to mitigate private transport use, their policy belief regarding constructing rail transport systems to achieve sustainable transport was stronger than the public as a whole. The study also revealed significant differences in policy beliefs between private and public transport commuters after DIF analysis. Public transport commuters are more confident than private transport commuters in the policies that raise usage costs, such as “Congestion Road Pricing on CBD,” “Increase gasoline prices to reduce car use,” and “Increase parking fees to reduce car use.” In addition, to achieve the goal of sustainable transportation, people who commute by private transport are more confident than public transport commuters in policies that “Provide instant traffic information to reduce driving time,” “Subsidize public to modify car by using LPG,” and “Implement electronic toll collection (ETC).” The findings and lessons learned from the two subgroups of people who owned and did not own a passenger car are the same as from the two subgroups of commuters using private and public transport. In addition, independent samples t-tests were used to identify significant differences between senior officials and the public on each item. The result revealed that the public believes more strongly than the senior officials in the effectiveness of building public transport centers as a means for achieving sustainable transportation. Except for constructing rail transport systems, the public is more optimistic that these policies will benefit sustainable transportation than are the senior officials. In other words, it indicates that senior officials are more conservative than the public regarding whether these policies will benefit sustainable transportation.