兩岸海運直航對臺灣港埠轉口櫃量之影響分析

Abstract

行政院於2003年8月15日公布「兩岸『直航』之影響評估」，明確指出海運直航可縮短運輸時間及節省運輸成本、提升物流配送效率，進而創造港口新增運量，強化國際航商留駐我港口之意願，亦可因應上海大、小洋山港建成後對我航運地位的可能影響。惟「海峽兩岸海運協議」實施至今，已逾二年，是否顯現其預期效益，為一值得探討的課題。 本研究首先蒐集及整理近八年的轉口櫃量資料，作系統性的分類與整理，據以分析比較直航前後臺灣港埠轉口櫃量之變化，並進一步探討兩岸直航對臺灣港埠轉口櫃量之影響。其次，再應用滾動式灰色預測方法預測直航轉口櫃量。 經上述程序之分析，所獲致的主要結論有「兩岸直航對臺灣港埠轉口櫃量具正面影響但未來成長幅度有限」、「兩岸直航效益在於部分區域性轉口貨櫃的增加，而非洲際性轉口貨櫃」、「大陸腹地以華南為主，惟以華中及華北較具發展潛力」，至於灰預測模式所預測的結果顯示，100年第1季兩岸直航轉口櫃量將較前一季略有增加。

The "Assessment of the Impact of Direct Cross-Strait Transportation" announced on August 15, 2003 by the Executive Yuan clearly states that direct cross-strait shipping could cut shipping time and reduce shipping costs, enhance the efficiency of the distribution of goods, increase freight volume at seaports, and increase international shipping firms’ willingness to operate in Taiwan’s ports. Direct cross-strait shipping could also lessen the potential negative impact on Taiwan’s shipping status after the completion of Shanghai’s new deep-water port on Big and Little Yangshan Islands. However, it has been more than two years since the “cross-strait shipping agreement” has been implemented. Whether it has achieved anticipated benefit or not is an issue worth exploring.

First, the study collected and classified nearly eight years of data about the volume of Container Transshipment through Taiwan’s ports. A comparison of the volume of transshipments before and after the implementation of the “cross-strait shipping agreement” was made to further explore the influence of the Direct Cross-Strait Shipping Links on the volume of container transshipment through Taiwan’s ports. Next, the study applied the Gray Prediction Method to forecast the volume of Container Transshipment.

Based on the analysis described above, the main conclusions are Direct Cross-Strait Shipping Links have a positive impact on the volume of Container Transshipment in Taiwan, but future growth rates will be limited. The benefit of Cross Strait Direct Shipping Link is mainly on the increase of the volume of regional container transshipments, rather than on that of intercontinental container transshipments. Also, southern China is the main hinterland for shipping links, while central and northern China having more development potential. Finally, the result of the gray prediction has shown that the volume in the first quarter of 2011 will be a slight increase over the previous quarter.