歐盟排放交易機制對國籍航空業者之營運影響

Abstract

歐盟實施碳排放交易機制將對經營歐洲航線之航空業者造成影響，故本研究旨在建構數學模式評估歐盟碳排放交易機制，對本國國籍航空公司營運面之影響，進而研擬因應對策。研究結果顯示各航線之碳排放量會受到派飛機型、採直飛或中停型態與班次數影響，故航空公司可藉由以中停取代直飛型態以及派飛較省油之機型之策略，以減少碳排放成本。再者，由於基期年度碳排放均量以及飛航基準年度之收益噸公里(RTK)將影響航空公司之免費碳排放額度。基此，未來開闢歐洲新航線時，可考慮一開始排定較多之班次數，並試圖增加旅客人數與腹艙載貨，使基期年度排放均量與收益噸公里放大，進而增加免費碳排放額度。此外，當碳權價格過高時會增加航線的直接營運成本，故在預期碳權價格上漲時，可採取類似油料避險之策略，以減少碳排放成本。最後，航空業可採取類似燃油附加費之策略，在考慮旅客之需求價格彈性後，以最適之比率將碳放成本移轉 至票價，以彌補碳排放成本之上升。

Implementation of the carbon emissions transaction scheme (EU ETS) by the European Union will significantly impact European airline routes. This work presents a novel mathematical model to evaluate how the EU ETS scheme will impact operations of a Taiwan airline and devises corresponding strategies. Analytical results indicate that aircraft type, flight patterns and frequency can determine the carbon emissions of each European airline. Therefore, airlines should either adopt stopover flight strategies rather than direct flights or use fuel-efficient aircraft to reduce carbon emission costs. Moreover, free carbon credits are determined based on the average emissions and revenue ton-kilometers of the base year. We thus recommend that airlines first arrange numerous European flights, increase the number of passengers, and utilize belly hold cargo strategies when launching new European routes to magnify the average emissions and RTK of the base year, gradually increasing the number of free carbon credits. Furthermore, the high price of carbon credits will increase direct operating costs of airlines. Airlines can subsequently reduce emissions costs through hedging strategies such as fuel hedging measures. Finally, airlines can transfer the appropriate cost of carbon emissions to passengers such as the bunker adjustment factor to compensate for the increased cost of carbon emissions based on price elasticity of demand.