标题: 股利调整、资本结构调整与财务危机关联性之实证分析
The Relationships among Dividend Payout Adjustment, Leverage Adjustment, and Financial Distress: An Empirical Analysis
作者: 彭湛权
Peng, Chan-Chuan
林建荣
Lin, Jane-Raung
财务金融研究所
关键字: 股利调整;资本结构调整;财务危机;Dividend Payout Adjustment;Leverage Adjustment;Financial Distress
公开日期: 2011
摘要: 过去文献讨论资本结构与财务危机的关联性时,多数聚焦于公司的杠杆程度,较少有文献讨论杠杆调整对财务危机之影响。此外,大部分讨论杠杆调整的文献都依赖在一前提之下,亦即公司应该要符合静态抵换理论,而有一目标负债比率。若是公司较符合融资顺位理论,且目标杠杆不存在时,则将目标杠杆相关变数引入财务危机模型,就失去解释上的意义。在我们的研究中发现,遇到此种问题时,可将目标股利支付率做为一替代方案。我们发现危机公司展现出较高的调整速度,且其负偏离的程度将随危机时点的逼近而愈来愈大。在危机预警模型中,引入目标股利偏离差,可以增加模型的解释能力。
Most studies about capital structure and its impact on firm failure have focused on the leverage, but seldom do they talk about influences of leverage adjustment. Also, most studies focusing on leverage adjustment rely on a premise that sample firms conform to tradeoff theory and have a target debt ratio. What if the firms fit more to pecking order theory and a target does not exist? Inspired by Fama and French (2000), we find target payout a good alternative for us to use in the prediction model. We find that distressed firms show higher speed of adjustment toward target payout, and the negative deviation deteriorates as the event year comes close. By introducing deviation into prediction models, the explaining power indeed increases.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079939533
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/50307
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