股利調整、資本結構調整與財務危機關聯性之實證分析

Abstract

過去文獻討論資本結構與財務危機的關聯性時，多數聚焦於公司的槓桿程度，較少有文獻討論槓桿調整對財務危機之影響。此外，大部分討論槓桿調整的文獻都依賴在一前提之下，亦即公司應該要符合靜態抵換理論，而有一目標負債比率。若是公司較符合融資順位理論，且目標槓桿不存在時，則將目標槓桿相關變數引入財務危機模型，就失去解釋上的意義。在我們的研究中發現，遇到此種問題時，可將目標股利支付率做為一替代方案。我們發現危機公司展現出較高的調整速度，且其負偏離的程度將隨危機時點的逼近而愈來愈大。在危機預警模型中，引入目標股利偏離差，可以增加模型的解釋能力。

Most studies about capital structure and its impact on firm failure have focused on the leverage, but seldom do they talk about influences of leverage adjustment. Also, most studies focusing on leverage adjustment rely on a premise that sample firms conform to tradeoff theory and have a target debt ratio. What if the firms fit more to pecking order theory and a target does not exist? Inspired by Fama and French (2000), we find target payout a good alternative for us to use in the prediction model. We find that distressed firms show higher speed of adjustment toward target payout, and the negative deviation deteriorates as the event year comes close. By introducing deviation into prediction models, the explaining power indeed increases.