調降營所稅對資本結構的影響

Abstract

過去關於資本結構的實證研究很多，本研究除針對台灣上市公司進行資本結構組成變數分析外，亦進一步區分高科技與非高科技產業的差別。同時，台灣立法院三讀通過調降營所稅案，並回朔至民國99年生效，台灣營業所得稅自25%調降至17%。本研究亦將探討營所稅調降一案是否將影響台灣上市公司之舉債水準。 本研究採用一般迴歸分析去探討台灣上市公司之資本結構與舉債水準之間之關聯，依變數為負債比例之差分，變數組成包括固定資產、營收成長率、有效稅率、內部人持股、總資產報酬率、營業自由現金變動率及虛擬變量(區分降稅前與降稅後)。

研究結果顯示: (1)調降營所稅後，來自稅盾的利益減少，公司理應調降舉債水準，然而根據結果顯示，大部分上市公司增加了舉債水準。(2)總資產報酬率與舉債水準為負相關，顯示獲利越高之公司，越不傾向向銀行借錢。(3)營業自由現金變動率與舉債水準為正相關，顯示營業風險越高之公司，反而越向銀行借錢，舉債更多。(4) 台灣的高科技產業公司，相對於非高科技產業，產品週期較短，研發費用較高，相對風險也較高，有過度舉債之虞，政府應三思每逢經濟危機便補助台灣高科技產業的合理性。

This paper is to examine whether the policy change of corporate tax cut from 25% to 17% in 2010 will affect the capital structure of Taiwan companies, and to verify the main determinants of capital structure. Financial data of listed companies on the Taiwan Stock Exchange covering the period from 2008 to 2011 are adopted and analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The dependent variable is the difference of debt ratio while the set of independent variables include tangible assets, sales growth, effective tax rate, insider shares, return on assets, operating cash flow volatility, and dummy variable.

Dummy variable is a time variable to define the period of 2008-2009 as “before” policy change (i=0), and the period of 2010-2011 as “after” policy change (i=1).

The result indicated that: (1) Most of the companies in Taiwan increase the debt ratio after the policy change, even though the benefit from tax shield decreases due to tax cut policy. (2)Negative coefficient of ROA in the study indicated that the more profitable the companies are, the lower the debt ratio will be. This result is consistent with the pecking order theory and the information asymmetry theory. (3)Positive coefficient of OCFsd in the study indicated that companies with high business risk are more willing to borrow money from banks. (4) Companies of IT industry in Taiwan may be over-leveraged, therefore government should reconsider whether to bail out IT industry whenever the financial distress comes.