自由現金流量與公司績效：以短期投資及長期投資為中介效果之驗證

Abstract

本篇論文主要是在探討短期投資與長期投資，是否會對自由現金流量與公司績效之間的關係產生影響。

研究對象是以有在臺灣證券交易所上市，且財務資料可於台灣經濟新報資料庫(TEJ) 取得之公司為主。研究期間從2001年至2010年，共計十年。本研究使用固定效果模型的橫斷面與時間序列合併資料模型。

實證結果顯示，自由現金流量與短期投資呈現負相關，但卻與長期投資呈現正相關。換言之，倘若擁有充裕的現金，公司比較喜歡投資在長期投資這部份，而非短期投資。至於投資與績效之間的關聯，短期投資和股價呈現負相關，而長期投資和股東權益報酬率之間也是呈現負相關。這表示投資人的眼光不是短淺的，而過度投資對於公司有可能造成損害。

總而言之，短期投資和長期投資皆有中介效果。前者在自由現金流量和股價之間產生中介效果，後者在自由現金流量和股東權益報酬率之間產生中介效果。公司應該多考量長期投資計畫，並且適當地投資。若只專注在短期投資或投機所帶來的利益，則有可能傷害公司價值。

This thesis is to investigate if short-term and long-term investments have influences on the relationship between free cash flow and performance of company.

Financial data comes from listed companies in Taiwan Exchange Stock Market and also shown in Taiwan Economic Journal Data Band (TEJ). Research period is from 2001 to 2010, total ten years. Fixed effect model which could deal with both cross-section analysis and time series analysis is used in the study.

The empirical results show that free cash flow has negative relationship with short-term investment, but has positive relationship with long-term investment. In other words, company prefers investing in long-term rather than short-term when they have plenty of cash. As for the relationship between investment and performance, the results indicate that short-term investment negative related to stock price, and long-term investment is negative related to return on equity. This represents that investors are not short-sighted, and overinvestment might harm the company.

In conclusion, short-term and long-term investments have mediation effects. The former one is on the relationship between free cash flow and stock price, the later one is on the relationship between free cash flow and ROE. Companies should concern long-term projects and invest appropriately, speculating in a risky adventure might decrease company value.