多運具疏散路網規劃之研究—以核四廠為例

Abstract

核電廠周圍地區之安全防護奠基於核子事故之預防、監測、應變與復原各階段相關之審慎規劃與分工，建立完備的路網疏散計畫是核子事故安全防護在緊急應變階段重要的一環。核電安全與路網疏散均是以核能電廠為中心，半徑5至10公里範圍內所定義的緊急計畫區(EPZ)為計畫範圍。路網疏散計畫的決策分析即在研擬最佳疏散方案，期能在最短時間內將EPZ區內民眾疏散儘快疏散至區外。現有文獻中，核能電廠疏散研究仍以公路車輛疏散為主。本研究以TEVACS (Transportation EVACuation System)路網疏散決策支援系統為基礎，除延伸原系統中私人車輛與公用車輛共同疏散功能外，亦針對EPZ內其他運具之疏散可行性及多運具疏散模式進行探討。研究發現，緊急疏散在陸運方面除公路外，以鐵路疏散之可行性較高；海運(漁船)在緊急疏散上之可行性較低；空運(直昇機)對病患或行動不便之特定民眾較為可行。 本研究對單線與雙線鐵路疏散之單趟次列車調派模式進行分析，依單線與雙線鐵路上車站數之不同建立15種進場模式與26種離場模式，經搭配後共計76種組合。本研究並以核四廠為例，針對其單線雙站鐵路與公路之複合疏散研擬集結與收容地點、民眾分派、車輛配置與疏散路線安排等適當疏散方案，進行路網疏散決策支援系統之模擬。結果發現，在特殊假日白天東北風全區EPZ疏散的情境下，公路疏散改善前疏散時間為348分鐘，如搭配鐵路疏散，其疏散時間為315分鐘；公路疏散改善後，疏散時間降為135分鐘；而再搭配鐵路疏散，疏散時間則為123分鐘。本研究亦發現，鐵公路多運具路網緊急疏散時，因公路路網較鐵路路網複雜，其改善空間較大，鐵路列車調派策略單純，其改善空間較小。個案結果顯示，公路疏散之改善效果可達61%，鐵路疏散之改善效果約為9%。本研究建立之鐵公路複合疏散模式亦可提供對非核電事故之其他緊急疏散計畫之決策參考。

Network evacuation planning is a critical part of a nuclear safety plan. In nuclear safety planning, the emergency planning zone (EPZ) is defined as the area within 5 to 10 kilometers surronding the nuclear power plant. The purpose of emergency network evacuation is to plan for an optimal plan which can evacuative the public from EPZ in a minimal amount of time. In current literature,the mode of transportation for evacuation is considered only to those vehicles on street networks, such as cars, buses and motorcycles. This research is based upon the TEVACS (Transportation EVACuation System), except for the function of extending from the original system to evacuate both the private and the public vehicles, it also focuses on the feasibility of other evacuation modes within EPZ and the exploration of multi-mode evacuation. This research found that in the emergent evacuation on land transportation except for the highway, the feasibility of railroad evacuation is higher; and it is lower in the sea transportation (fishing vessels) for emergency evacuation; in the air transportation (helicopters) it is more feasible for specific people like the sick or the handicapped.

We first developed train-dispatching models for multi-mode evacuation, and applied them to the case of the Forth Nucler Power Plant in Taiwan. We proposed and tested alternative multi-mode evacuation plans on the TEVACS system. The analysis results show that under the scenario of a special holiday, day time, northeastern wind and the whole area of EPZ evacuation, it takes 348 minutes for the evacuation before the improvement, and if it collocates with the railroad, the evacuation time is 315 minutes; after the improvement the time is decreased to 135 minutes; and if it collocates with railroad, the evacuation time is then 123 minutes. This research also found that when in railway/highway multi-mode emergent evacuation, because the highway network is more complicated than the railway network, the room for improvement is larger, while the strategy for railroad train assignments is simple, the room for improvement is smaller. The conclusion of this case study manifested that the effect of the improvement for the highway evacuation could reach to 61%, and the improvement effect of the railway evacuation was about 9%. The models developed in this paper should be applicative to emergency scenarios other than nuclear power plants.