買車自備停車位策略對抑制我國小客車數量成長之功效

Abstract

本論文主要目的即從停車管理角度，由解決住宅區端的停車需求著手，以 陳述性偏好法探討對小客車持有及使用之行為衝擊分析。研究過程採二階 段設計程序，第一階段進行重要決策屬性之粹取及屬性水準值範圍之設定 ；第二階段遵循前一階段研究結果以隨機常態分配實驗設計，分已擁有車 者及尚未擁有車者建立其車輛持有與車位選擇偏好排序的陳述性偏好問卷 ，並進行模式校估、比較及分析，並假設不同政策作敏感度分析。實證分 析結果發現：由概似比指標及正確預測百分比之檢定結果各NMNL模式之解 釋能力顯著優於各MNL模式；顯示決策者在進行車輛持有與車位聯合選擇 時，傾向於先決定是否持有車輛，再決定車位的形式。同時概似比檢定之 結果加入社經變數之模式解釋能力顯著優於未加入社經變數之模式；顯示 決策者的社經特性對車輛持有與車位聯合選擇有顯著的影響。換言之，透 過政策能改變民眾的持車意向效果可能有限。如果政策目標是以降低小客 車持有的比率為目的，由研究分析發現集中興建大型停車場比興建小型分 散停車場的效果好；且實施買車自備停車位政策不論是針對新車實施或新 車、中古車全面實施，其效果差異不大。同時研究發現對已擁有車者或尚 未擁有車者言，其放棄小汽車持有或購車意願後之主要替代運具均為機車 。 This dissertation aims to slove the parking re- quirements inresidential areas throughan impact study of passenger car usage / ownership behavior using the stated preference method. A two-stageapproach is used in this study. In the first stage, stepsare taken to design the levels of specific attributes in the artificial alternatives and to find the ranges of related attribute values. In the second stage, random normal distribution design, based on the information derived from the first stage, is used to design the stated preference surveys of passenger car ownership and parking alternatives for both passenger car owners and non-owners along with model calibration, comparison and sensitivity analysis using variables policies. Empirical results show that the likelyhood ratio index anda test of significance and goodness offit using a nested multinomial logit model is more interpretive then that of a multinomial logit model . It appears that when the owning of passenger car and parking arrangement are pitched together, the decision- maker tends to settle on whether to own a passenger car before making parkingarrangements. In addition, the results of likelyhood ratio index that take into consideration social-economical variables are more interpretive then ones that do not, therefore,the effectiveness of altering passenger car owning behavior using government policies seems limited. If the objective is to lower the passenger car owning rate,this study shows that it is more effective to build a large isolated parking facility rather that small scattered ones.When a mandatory parking space is required prior to ownership of passenger car, if makes little difference whether the policy is applied to new cars only or new and used cars.Also,the mode of trans- portation chosen by most to replace the owning of passenger car, for both owners and non-owners alike, is motorcycle.