機車使用者轉乘大眾捷運系統個體選擇行為之研究

Abstract

臺灣地區機車問題有日益嚴重的趨勢，同時台北都會區捷運系統即將興建 完成，為研究機車使用者在捷運完成後之運具選擇行為，本研究透過兩階 段陳述性偏好法，應用運具選擇之方案評分與方案排序資料分別構建迴歸 模式與個體模式，並依旅次長度不同區分模式分別加以探討。經統計檢定 發現：不同旅次長度區隔樣本所校估之模式與未依旅次長度區隔所構建之 模式均有顯著之不同。 就個體模式與迴歸模式之分析結果顯示，機車使 用者是否轉乘捷運其所考量之決策變數為『車內成本』，因此為有效吸引 機車使用者轉乘應考慮提高機車之持有成本及利用政府補貼、轉民營化經 營降低捷運之票價以有效吸引機車使用者轉乘。 This study is undertaken to explore the mode choi- ce behavior of motorcycle users as the mass rapid transit comes out.A two-stage approach of stated pref- erence method is employed to get the required data for analysis.The results of stated preference questionnai- re show that 63.67% of motorcycle users would continue to complete their commuter trips by motorcycles, and 36.33% of motorcycle users would shift to the MRT.Both probit and regression models are used to analyze the mode choice problem of motorcycle users. The results show the in-vehicle travel cost is the most significa- nt factor determining whether the motorcycle uses will shift to MRT.If the motorcycle users have decided to shift to MRT, then the feeding time would be another key attribute for them to determine which feeding mode to take. The results of this research will not only help the mass transit company to derive marketing strategi- es , but also provide the valuable information for government to derive the policies to attract much more motorcycle users to take MRT.