平衡國內外汽車產業競爭條件可行措施之模糊多評準決策

Abstract

關稅暨貿易總協定（GATT）係國際間規範關稅和對外貿易的協定；台灣 於1989年對關貿總協秘書處提出加盟申請，至今各會員國尚對台灣之農業 政策及汽車產業之部分措施因與關貿總協的規範不盡一致，而表關切。惟 台灣汽車工業發展條件較之工業先進國家為差，故原本在國內實施之各項 輔導措施對汽車產業而言相當重要，此等措施應如何調整，就政府立場， 必須慎重考慮。本研究以腦力激盪方式，在國家整體利益的立場，首先依 政策、經濟、技術、社會及執行等五個層面，研擬十三項評估準則；並針 對我現行汽車工業各項措施，和關貿總協各會員國因應入關之策略，擬出 適合我國的各種可行方案（措施），再以問卷方式結合國內相關專家意見 ，利用多評準決策方法（MCDM）中之AHP法，得出各評估準則之相對重要 度，再於各準則之下，將所研擬各方案依專家知識進行直觀之評點；最後 分別根據決策群體與業者之意見，以模糊TOPSIS法將評估矩陣結合各準則 之權重，得出各方案之優勢排序，並依此作為政府研擬政策之參考,以降 低我國因加入關貿總協而對國內汽車關聯產業產生的影響。 The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) is an a- greement stipulating on international customs and trade. Taiwan applied to the Secretariat of GATT in 1989 for joining the orga- nization. Up to now, each member nation of the organization has shown strong concern about Taiwan's protection of agricultural and automobile industries as those measures contradict GATT st- ipulations. However, the development conditions of Taiwan's aut- omobile industries are worse than those of industrialized devel- oped nations. The guidance measures originally implemented dome- stically are very important to domestic industries. Thus from the viewpoint of the government, the ways to adjust these measures have to be seriously considered. This research was conducted by the use of the brain-storming met- hod, taking into consideration of the overall benefit to the cou- ntry. According to the 5 phases of policy, economics, technology, society, and implementation, thirteen evaluation criteria are formulated to propose various feasible alternatives (measures) that are suitable for our nation. They are based on our present various measures on automobile industry, referring to the strate- gies each member nation took before entering GATT and combining relevant domestic expert opinions via questionnaires. The AHP me- thod of Multiple criterion decision Making (MCDM) is used to obt- ain the relative importance of each evaluation criterion." Under each criterion, direct-view evaluation points are given to the formulated alternatives according to expert's knowledge. Finally, it uses FUZZY TOPSIS method, associating the evaluation matrix with the weight of each criterion to obtain the priority rankings of each alternative for reference in formulating policies.