新興顯示技術電視機全球市場發展之分析

Abstract

由於液晶電視機（LCD TV）、電漿電視機（PDP TV）、背投影電視機（Rear Projection TV）等新興顯示技術電視機具有輕薄不佔空間、電磁輻射量小等優勢，故普遍預期隨著技術突破、良率提升、廠商擴產等有利因素的一一實現，新興顯示技術電視機將逐漸拉近與映像管電視機（CRT TV）的價格差距，進而替代傳統的映像管電視機。此外，隨著各國數位電視廣播的陸續開撥，未來消費者更加需要大尺寸、高畫質的顯示效果，而這也成為液晶電視機、電漿電視機、背投影電視機等新興顯示技術電視機的絕佳發展契機。本研究主要目的即在於分析各種新興顯示技術電視機全球市場的發展趨勢。在液晶電視機、電漿電視機、背投影電視機將替代映像管電視機原有市場的假設之下，本研究收集1999年到2003年全球電視機市場的市場規模資料以及國內相關領域專家的專業意見之後，透過技術預測方法中的成長曲線法，來分析各種新興顯示技術電視機全球市場的發展趨勢。最後研究結果除了求得各種新興顯示技術電視機於樂觀情形、最可能情形、悲觀情形下的市場佔有率發展軌跡，還發現各種新興顯示技術電視機都將在2015年到2016年左右幾乎達到其市場佔有率的上限值，此時市場佔有率由大到小依序為液晶電視機、電漿電視機、背投影電視機，但映像管電視機仍佔有超過半數的全球電視機市場。

With the emerging digital revolution of LCD TV, PDP TV and Rear Projection TV, that brings a broad range advantages to light weighted, low-frequency electromagnetic emissions, performance and price, it seemed that the emerging-technology-based television products can gradually replace CRT TV. Apart from that, recent advances in HD compatibility have markedly increased the response time of these displays; resulting in even smoother on-screen presentations which in consequences, the demand of larger size with better display results will thus increase. The purpose of this research is to analyze the development of the global market of these three kinds of emerging-technology-based television products. Under the assumption of those emerging-technology-based television products will gradually replace CRT TV in television markets, literature review is based on the sell quantity of televisions around the global from year 1999 to 2003 and opinions from the experts in the relevant domain are collected in this research. In order to analyze the global trend and demand in these emerging TV displays, growth curves of technology forecasting methods are hence used. The results represent varied developing trends of the market share in the optimum, worst, and most likely scenario respectively, and provide these three kinds of emerging-technology-based television products will reach their upper limits in the market share around year 2015 or 2016. At that time, LCD TV will have the largest demand in the emerging-technology-based television, PDP TV is the next and Rear Projection TV is the third. CRT TV, however, will still occupy half of the global television market share.