标题: | 科技政策与计画之结构评估模式 A Structure Evaluation Model for Technology Policies and Programs |
作者: | 李宗伟 Li, Chung-Wei 曾国雄 Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung 科技管理研究所 |
关键字: | 科技管理;DEMATEL方法;最大平均熵差法;门槛值;management of technology;DEMATEL;Maximum Mean De-Entropy (MMDE) algorithm;threshold value |
公开日期: | 2008 |
摘要: | 在科技管理领域中,管理者经常在充满不确定性的决策环境中做决策,尤其在面对如资讯、生物、奈米等新兴科技时,决策者常面临复杂且交错的决策问题。在解决复杂的问题时,将问题的考量因素及因素间相互的关系予以图型化,有利于厘清复杂问题中相关的议题及概念。DEMATEL方法主要的目的即在于研究并解决复杂且决策因子交错的问题。此方法现在已经广泛被应用于问题分析或工业规划等领域之中。应用DEMATEL方法时,可以将欲解决的问题予以图像化,而这图像亦反应了参与决策的人员对问题的认知情形。但是要得到合适的图像,门槛值的设定将影响后续对问题的分析或解决方式。在以往,门槛值通常是经由专家们讨论之后定案,但在获得门槛值的共识是一件困难的事,有时候,亦会由研究者自行考量后订定,而此将导致不同的研究者将得到不同的门槛值。本论文提出最大平均熵差法(Maximum Mean De-Entropy, MMDE)来解决此问题。本论文亦将引用“矽智财交易中心”之政策规划及“数位学习”之成效评估模式等两个案例,说明本方法之可行性,并比较本方法与传统经由专家们决定门槛值间之异同之处。 Most fields in the management of technology experience uncertainty in the environment of decision-making, especially in emerging technology fields. Information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology are good examples of sectors with complex coordination problems. To deal with complex problems, structuring them through graphical representations and analyzing causal influences can aid in illuminating complex issues, systems, or concepts. The DEMATEL method is a methodology which can be used for researching and solving complicated and intertwined problem groups. The applicability of the DEMATEL method is widespread, ranging from analyzing world problematique decision making to industrial planning. The end product of the DEMATEL process is a visual representation—the impact-relations map—by which respondents organize their own actions in the world. In order to obtain a suitable impact-relations map, an appropriate threshold value is needed to obtain adequate information for further analysis and decision-making. To obtain the reasonable threshold value, with respect to the difficulty of discussions with experts, the researcher may decide upon the value subjectively themselves. This result may differ among researchers. In this dissertation, we propose a method based on the entropy approach, the Maximum Mean De-Entropy (MMDE) algorithm, to achieve this purpose. Using real cases to find the interrelationships between the criteria for planning SIP Mall policy and evaluating effects in E-learning programs as examples, we will compare the results obtained from the respondents and from our method, and discuss that the different impact-relations maps from these two methods. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009135802 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/58845 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |
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