濁水溪沖積扇地下水序率數值模擬模式之研究

Abstract

本研究目的為建立濁水溪沖積扇之定率及序率地下水數值模擬模式﹐並 以建立之序率數值模式探討在不同的地下水觀測站網分佈的情況下﹐將來 之序率模擬模式所可能達到的模式預測精度。本研究所建立的數值模式乃 是以建置中的濁水溪沖積扇地下水觀測站網所產生的水文地質資料﹐以及 相關的地下分層分析成果為基礎﹐因此模式的架構本身為至目前為止對濁 水溪沖積扇最詳細的描述﹐將整個濁水溪扇分為四個主要含水層﹐兩個區 域性的主要阻水層。將來以此序率模式為基礎﹐再配合即時的水位觀測﹐ 則可以更進一步建立地下水的即時操作模擬模式﹐可直接支援地表地下水 的聯合營運。 This study is to build the deterministic and stochastic model for simulating groundwater flow of the Cho-Shui River fan , and with the stochastic model we can probe into the uncertainty of the estimation error of this model basing on different groundwater monitoring network alternatives . Because the model we built is using the hydrogeological data given by the construction of monitor wells for groundwater level and by geological logging , the description of the hydrogeologic for the Cho-Shui River fan is the most detailed. Basing on that the Cho-Shui River fan can be grouped into four important aquifers and two regional aquitards. In the further , a real-time groundwater flow model for supporting conjunctive use in water resources by combining the stochastic model and real-time groundwater level measurements can be built.