航空公司班表與航機巡航計劃

Abstract

班表(Timetable)為航空公司運作之基礎，深切地影響到航空公 司營運的績效，而就目前台灣地區各航空公司的班表觀之，除了於某些特 殊假日會以加班機的方式因應外，一般均維持著一固定的班表，並無法反 應出實際的需求型態，所以應該要針對不同的需求型態擬定不同的班表， 在不同的班表之間做適當的轉換，以因應不同的需求狀況。 在班 表訂定之後，即可制作航機的巡航計劃，以往文獻在處理巡航排程時，均 將需求設為已知或是以草擬之班次表做為輸入要件，並未對市場需求與航 機巡航排程間之互動關係有一較深入之研究。同時，國內航線在訂定班次 時刻表及航機巡航排程時亦缺乏一套完整而有依據之處理程序，因此本研 究試圖找出國內各航線的供需特性，構建承載率的迴歸模式以預測出承載 率較高的時段，進而在班次的安排及航機的巡航排程均能針對每一條航線 的特性，做出最有利於航空公司的安排。 本研究所建立的處理程 序雖然經過相當的假設，但仍相當符合實務上的特性，保留相當程度的彈 性供航空公司自行考量，允許航空公司將個別的經營策略與營運方式納入 其中，以做為航空公司訂定班機時刻表及航機巡航排程之依據。 Timetable which significantly affects an airline's performanceis the basis for airline operation . Currently , however , airlines inTaiwan always keep a fixed timetable . They only respond duringholidays with more flights. To reflect the real demand patterns,there is a need to have various timetables with suitable transitionfor different demand patterns. Aircraft rotation plan is made on the basis of the associated timetable. Previous researchers in general either assumed the demand is knownor took the timetable as given . No detail interaction between marketdemand and aircraft schedule was studied . In addition , there is nocomprehensive process for domestic airlines to devise their timetable and aircraft schedule . This thesis , therefore , tried to find outthe demand and supply characteristics of each air route , and toestablish a regression model to forecast load factor. Armed with themodel , the airlines then can make the most use of it and arrangeflights in the most profitable slots . Although there are some assumptions made in the proposed procedure ,it still pretty much matches the airline practice . Besides , itleaves plenty rooms for airlines , when they are making the timetableand flight schedule , to take their individual operational strategiesinto consideration.