交通建設BOT案政府對民間造成之風險分析-以中正捷運線為例-

Abstract

為因應日益複雜且繁重的旅次需求，重大交通建設的推動勢在必行， 而重大交通建設往往具有投資成本高、建設期長等特性，長期以往將對政 府財政造成相當大的負擔，因此，將民間資金力量引入重大交通建設實為 當務之急。然而在民營化過程中可能遭遇到的種種風險卻是造成民間投資 者卻步的主因。 以往的研究並未能提供相關風險的衡量模式，因 此，如何找出民間參與BOT計劃脂時可能遭遇的風險，並進一步衡量分析 來自於政府方面的風險大小，將有助於政府交通建設單位和民間專案特許 公司契約談判之參考及擬訂避險策略之依據，此即為本研究所欲探討的課 題。 本研究以風險管理為架構，模糊理論為基礎，結合總損失分 配法，依特許年限包含建設期有無構建兩套風險衡量模式，再分別探討分 析BOT案例中因土地取得延遲和政府政策改變造成運量減少導致之投資成 本增加風險及營運收入減少風險。最後以中正捷運線為例，衡量各風險情 境下的風險總值並進行敏感度分析，再配合獎參條例等相關條文的規定， 找出適當之避險方法與風險管理策略。 就風險和營建效率觀點而 言，特許年限自建設期起之模式較營運期起為佳。民間專案特許公司在面 對BOT計劃案產生之風險時可向政府方面取得適當保證或採取投保、融資 等避險策略，而政府單位也應增修相關之法律條文並提供運量不足補貼或 融資優惠等措施以增加民間投資的誘因，俾利於重大交通建設的推行。 In order to accommodate and satisfy the increasingly transportation needsof today and tomorrow, tremendous amount of capital has been invested inlong-term transportation infrastructure projects, which results in huge fiscalstrain on the government. Thus, it is prudent for the government to encourageprivate investments in the infrastructure projects. The risks , however,associated with projects are inherently high, as the changing social andpolitical environment may lead to policy changes unfavourable to investors. The past research has not yet provided a satisfactory framework forevaluation of risks faced by private investors in these"build-operate-transfer(BOT)" projects. Nor is there a proper framework toevaluate risks over uncertainty on public policy in the long-run. Therefore,the purpose of this research to propose a framework to evaluate risks facedby private investors to help the negotiation between public and privatesectors and prepare the risk management strategies. The proposed evaluation framework is based on risk management, and employsfuzzy theory and aggregate loss distribution method. This framework providestwo evaluation models depending on whether the concession period includes thedesign and construction of the project or not. This study analyzes the risks caused by government on two sides：the delayof land acquisition and decrease in operating revenues due to transportationpolicy change. A case study on CKS Airport Link Rapid Transit System isconducted. Taking into account of risks and operating efficiency, the BOTproject is more favorable if the design and construction of the project areincluded in the contract. Private Investors, to decrease exposure to politicaluncertainty, may either 1) request from the government guarantees of certainsupport/terms to prevent financial loss from happening, or 2) explorere-insurance alternatives or financial options such as re-financing, etc.Similarly, the involved government body can and should provide and createmorefavourable investment conditions through changes to the existing regulations or the enactment of new regulations, such as government subsidy or preferentialfinancial loans, etc.