标题: 交通建设BOT案政府对民间造成之风险分析-以中正捷运线为例-
Study on Risks Caused by Government to Private Investor in BOT Transportation Project-A Case Study of CKS Airport Link Rapid Transit System-
作者: 钟启椿
Chung, Chi-Chun
冯正民
Cheng-Min Feng
运输与物流管理学系
关键字: 交通建设;民营化;风险管理;模糊理论;风险衡量;中正捷运线;BOT;Fuzzy Theory;Risk Management;Risk Assessment;Rapid Transit System;Transportation Project
公开日期: 1996
摘要: 为因应日益复杂且繁重的旅次需求,重大交通建设的推动势在必行,
而重大交通建设往往具有投资成本高、建设期长等特性,长期以往将对政
府财政造成相当大的负担,因此,将民间资金力量引入重大交通建设实为
当务之急。然而在民营化过程中可能遭遇到的种种风险却是造成民间投资
者却步的主因。 以往的研究并未能提供相关风险的衡量模式,因
此,如何找出民间参与BOT计划脂时可能遭遇的风险,并进一步衡量分析
来自于政府方面的风险大小,将有助于政府交通建设单位和民间专案特许
公司契约谈判之参考及拟订避险策略之依据,此即为本研究所欲探讨的课
题。 本研究以风险管理为架构,模糊理论为基础,结合总损失分
配法,依特许年限包含建设期有无构建两套风险衡量模式,再分别探讨分
析BOT案例中因土地取得延迟和政府政策改变造成运量减少导致之投资成
本增加风险及营运收入减少风险。最后以中正捷运线为例,衡量各风险情
境下的风险总值并进行敏感度分析,再配合奖参条例等相关条文的规定,
找出适当之避险方法与风险管理策略。 就风险和营建效率观点而
言,特许年限自建设期起之模式较营运期起为佳。民间专案特许公司在面
对BOT计划案产生之风险时可向政府方面取得适当保证或采取投保、融资
等避险策略,而政府单位也应增修相关之法律条文并提供运量不足补贴或
融资优惠等措施以增加民间投资的诱因,俾利于重大交通建设的推行。
In order to accommodate and satisfy the increasingly
transportation needsof today and tomorrow, tremendous amount of
capital has been invested inlong-term transportation
infrastructure projects, which results in huge fiscalstrain on
the government. Thus, it is prudent for the government to
encourageprivate investments in the infrastructure projects. The
risks , however,associated with projects are inherently high, as
the changing social andpolitical environment may lead to policy
changes unfavourable to investors. The past research has not
yet provided a satisfactory framework forevaluation of risks
faced by private investors in these"build-operate-transfer(BOT)"
projects. Nor is there a proper framework toevaluate risks over
uncertainty on public policy in the long-run. Therefore,the
purpose of this research to propose a framework to evaluate
risks facedby private investors to help the negotiation between
public and privatesectors and prepare the risk management
strategies. The proposed evaluation framework is based on
risk management, and employsfuzzy theory and aggregate loss
distribution method. This framework providestwo evaluation
models depending on whether the concession period includes
thedesign and construction of the project or not. This study
analyzes the risks caused by government on two sides:the
delayof land acquisition and decrease in operating revenues due
to transportationpolicy change. A case study on CKS Airport Link
Rapid Transit System isconducted. Taking into account of risks
and operating efficiency, the BOTproject is more favorable if
the design and construction of the project areincluded in the
contract. Private Investors, to decrease exposure to
politicaluncertainty, may either 1) request from the government
guarantees of certainsupport/terms to prevent financial loss
from happening, or 2) explorere-insurance alternatives or
financial options such as re-financing, etc.Similarly, the
involved government body can and should provide and
createmorefavourable investment conditions through changes to
the existing regulations or the enactment of new regulations,
such as government subsidy or preferentialfinancial loans, etc.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT850118023
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/61540
显示于类别:Thesis