標題: 交通建設BOT案政府對民間造成之風險分析-以中正捷運線為例-
Study on Risks Caused by Government to Private Investor in BOT Transportation Project-A Case Study of CKS Airport Link Rapid Transit System-
作者: 鍾啟椿
Chung, Chi-Chun
馮正民
Cheng-Min Feng
運輸與物流管理學系
關鍵字: 交通建設;民營化;風險管理;模糊理論;風險衡量;中正捷運線;BOT;Fuzzy Theory;Risk Management;Risk Assessment;Rapid Transit System;Transportation Project
公開日期: 1996
摘要: 為因應日益複雜且繁重的旅次需求,重大交通建設的推動勢在必行,
而重大交通建設往往具有投資成本高、建設期長等特性,長期以往將對政
府財政造成相當大的負擔,因此,將民間資金力量引入重大交通建設實為
當務之急。然而在民營化過程中可能遭遇到的種種風險卻是造成民間投資
者卻步的主因。 以往的研究並未能提供相關風險的衡量模式,因
此,如何找出民間參與BOT計劃脂時可能遭遇的風險,並進一步衡量分析
來自於政府方面的風險大小,將有助於政府交通建設單位和民間專案特許
公司契約談判之參考及擬訂避險策略之依據,此即為本研究所欲探討的課
題。 本研究以風險管理為架構,模糊理論為基礎,結合總損失分
配法,依特許年限包含建設期有無構建兩套風險衡量模式,再分別探討分
析BOT案例中因土地取得延遲和政府政策改變造成運量減少導致之投資成
本增加風險及營運收入減少風險。最後以中正捷運線為例,衡量各風險情
境下的風險總值並進行敏感度分析,再配合獎參條例等相關條文的規定,
找出適當之避險方法與風險管理策略。 就風險和營建效率觀點而
言,特許年限自建設期起之模式較營運期起為佳。民間專案特許公司在面
對BOT計劃案產生之風險時可向政府方面取得適當保證或採取投保、融資
等避險策略,而政府單位也應增修相關之法律條文並提供運量不足補貼或
融資優惠等措施以增加民間投資的誘因,俾利於重大交通建設的推行。
In order to accommodate and satisfy the increasingly
transportation needsof today and tomorrow, tremendous amount of
capital has been invested inlong-term transportation
infrastructure projects, which results in huge fiscalstrain on
the government. Thus, it is prudent for the government to
encourageprivate investments in the infrastructure projects. The
risks , however,associated with projects are inherently high, as
the changing social andpolitical environment may lead to policy
changes unfavourable to investors. The past research has not
yet provided a satisfactory framework forevaluation of risks
faced by private investors in these"build-operate-transfer(BOT)"
projects. Nor is there a proper framework toevaluate risks over
uncertainty on public policy in the long-run. Therefore,the
purpose of this research to propose a framework to evaluate
risks facedby private investors to help the negotiation between
public and privatesectors and prepare the risk management
strategies. The proposed evaluation framework is based on
risk management, and employsfuzzy theory and aggregate loss
distribution method. This framework providestwo evaluation
models depending on whether the concession period includes
thedesign and construction of the project or not. This study
analyzes the risks caused by government on two sides:the
delayof land acquisition and decrease in operating revenues due
to transportationpolicy change. A case study on CKS Airport Link
Rapid Transit System isconducted. Taking into account of risks
and operating efficiency, the BOTproject is more favorable if
the design and construction of the project areincluded in the
contract. Private Investors, to decrease exposure to
politicaluncertainty, may either 1) request from the government
guarantees of certainsupport/terms to prevent financial loss
from happening, or 2) explorere-insurance alternatives or
financial options such as re-financing, etc.Similarly, the
involved government body can and should provide and
createmorefavourable investment conditions through changes to
the existing regulations or the enactment of new regulations,
such as government subsidy or preferentialfinancial loans, etc.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT850118023
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/61540
顯示於類別:畢業論文