時間壓力下程序式決策之訓練

Abstract

在許多危機管理事件中，操作管理員必須在時間壓力下依據緊急處理程序下達正確的決策。由於文獻顯示人類傾向於以直覺式的經驗法則來處理資訊，並且對其決策結果有過高的信心，因此在危機決策環境中，提供操作管理員有效的決策訓練是必要的。為了對此決策需求提出貢獻，本研究之目的在探討利用專家系統在程序式決策上的優點與功能，作為危機管理決策訓練系統的有效性。本論文以半導體廠化學藥品外洩之工安事故為模擬的決策情境，並發展一套以此領域為知識庫的專家系統為訓練工具。四十位受試者參與以"訓練"及"時間壓力"為獨立操作變項的實驗;吾人並在實驗中收集決策時間、決策正確率、策略使用偏向度、信心判斷值、信心調控拓數等五種表現衡量變項。研究結果顯示在時間壓力下，人類除了加快資訊處理的速率外，其決策行為會強烈倚賴"短期記憶可獲性"的經驗法則。吾人發現此決策模式不但是受試者對其決策表現過度自信的導因，也是許多決策上人為疏失的根源。研究結果也顯示受過專家系統決策訓練的受試者能在較快的速度下以邏輯運算策略來演譯程序式資訊。受過專家系統決策訓練的受試者在決策正確度以及信心的判斷、調控上也有較佳的表現。本研究並據此提出這些研究結果在行為決策理論、電腦輔助訓練、人機介面設計、工業安全等領域的應用。

In many emergency situations, human operators need to derive countermeasures based on contingency rules whilst under time pressure. Since it has been found that people tend to process information intuitively and to be overconfident regarding their performance level, it is necessary that operators be well trained in decision making for the safety-related domain. In order to contribute to the human success in playing such a role, the present study intends to examine the effectiveness of using expert systems, an excellent rule-based reasoner, to train for the desired decision performance. Emergency management of chemical spills was selected to exemplify the rule-based decision task. An expert system in this domain was developed to serve as the training tool. Forty subjects participated in an experiment in which a computerized information board was used to capture subjects' rule-based performance under the manipulation of time pressure and training The experiment results indicate that people adapt to time pressure by accelerating their processing of rules where the heuristic of cognitive availability was employed. The simplifying strategy was found to be the source of human error in rule-based reasoning, and also the root resulting in confirmation bias that led to overconfidence. The results also show that the decision behavior of individuals who undergo the expert system training is directed to a normative and expeditious pattern, which leads to an improved level of decision accuracy and appropriate realism of confidence judgment. Implications of these findings for human decision behavior, computer-aided training, interface design, and industrial safety are examined in the present study.